ATP & WTA Miami Day 4: Top Plays for Friday

João Mourato

Thursday, March 24, 2016 5:19 PM UTC

Thursday, Mar. 24, 2016 5:19 PM UTC

Join us and find out our two top betting selections for the ATP & WTA Miami Day 4. We'll provide a detailed analysis, explaining why you should grab these two valuable tennis picks.

Roger Federer (3) vs Juan Martin Del Potro
In our ATP & WTA Miami Day 2 analysis, we picked Guido Pella to give a good fight and cover the Over against Juan Martin Del Potro but, even though Pella was able to take the second set into a tie break, his awful first set ruined the Over chances. Del Potro served at very good level throughout the match, winning 82.35% of the points played on his service games and placing 72% first serve.

As we mentioned in our tournament analysis, Roger Federer makes his return to competition after a knee injury that required surgery. The conditions in Miami aren’t the best for Federer, with the slower courts not allowing the Suisse to rush into the net as often as he uses to do on other courts. Roger’s last trophy in Miami was achieved in 2006 and since then, his best result was reaching the semifinals in 2009 and 2011.

These two players know each other well with some remarkable battles in the past, especially the US Open final in 2009 where Del Potro emerged victorious in a five sets battle. This will be the 21st meeting between them, with Federer leading on h2h by 15 – 5.

Despite not being at his best level, Del Potro should be a tough opponent for Federer. The Argentinean was never an easy match-up for the Suisse and he’s far from the opponent that Federer would like to face on his return. A knee surgery is always a sensitive issue, especially on a 34 years old player like Federer. With this in mind, we believe the value is on Del Potro’s side and for that reason, we suggest adding the Argentinean spread to your tennis picks.

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Free Tennis Pick: Juan Martin Del Potro +3.5 (-109)
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle


Dominika Cibulkova vs Garbine Muguruza (4)
It has been a very difficult start of season for Garbine Muguruza, with the 2015 Wimbledon runner-up struggling to find her best tennis. It’s quite common that after a huge year with unexpected results the players struggle in the following season and that’s exactly what’s happening to Garbine. The Spaniard is not dealing well with her unforced errors, getting too frustrated and not fighting as she used to do.

Dominika Cibulkova is slowly returning to her best level after a serious physical problem in 2015. Dominika was close from beating Agnieszka Radwanska in Indian Wells, losing only by 5 – 7 on the 3rd set after leading by 5 – 2 on that decisive set. Cibulkova always enjoyed the conditions in Miami, with 14 – 8 career record and her best result achieved in 2014 when she reached the semifinals. Despite a slow start on the first round against Johanna Larsson, Cibulkova recovered from a set down to defeat the Swedish by 4 – 6 6 – 2 6 – 1.

This will be the third career meeting between this pair, with Muguruza winning the two previous matches they played in 2013 at s-Hertogenbosch and 2014 at Stanford.

Both players are able to produce an outstanding level of tennis, but they are also known for their inconsistency. The tennis odds on this match are very close and we agree with that, expecting a tremendous battle. Like it happened on their last match in Stanford, where Muguruza emerged victorious by 6 – 2 4 – 6 6 – 2, this match should be decided on a third set. Having said that, we recommend you to place a bet on the Over, in a line that presents good value and might also be won in two close sets.

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Free Tennis Pick: Over 21 (-109)
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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