We’re into the quarter finals and after Djokovic recovered from being 2 sets down against Musetti, it’s looking increasingly likely that we will get another classic Djokovic vs Nadal semi final. First, we have the quarters and there are some exciting matchups on the cards. Join me as I analyze the quarter finals in Paris and offer my best tennis betting value picks!
Daniil Medvedev (2) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas (5)
Tuesday, June 08, 2021 – 03:00 PM EDT at Court Philippe Chatrier
Tennis fans have got the matchup they wanted in the bottom quarter with Medvedev taking on the in-form Tsitsipas. These two have already played 7 times with Medvedev coming out the winner in 6 of those, most recently this year at the Australian Open. He won 6-4, 6-2, 7-5 that day and looks to have Tsitsipas’ number on the whole. The Greek simply can’t hit through Medvedev.
Nonetheless, Tsitsipas is the -210 (1.48) favorite at the best betting sites and that is down entirely to Medvedev’s woes on clay. The Russian had won just 1 of his last 8 matches on clay going back to 2019 before this French Open and has spoken openly about his dislike of the surface.
Tsitsipas is quite the opposite, playing some of his best tennis on clay. He’s won 41 of his last 50 on the surface and 20 of 23 this year, with titles in Monte Carlo and Lyon plus a final appearance in Barcelona where he narrowly lost out to Nadal. He took Djokovic to 5 sets at the French Open last year and has looked strong so far this week.
That doesn’t paint the whole picture though and I think Medvedev’s form this week has not been given the respect it deserves. Firstly, just before the losing streak that started in 2019 he had made the semi final of Monte Carlo, beating Tsitsipas and Djokovic en route. He also made the final of Barcelona, defeating Nishikori in the semis before losing to Thiem.
The Russian also commented on the clay at Roland Garros after his warm ups at the event, saying he much prefers playing conditions here to most clay he’s played on recently (full text available via TennisForm). Whether it’s in his head or not matters very little, as he is playing very well (this is the best week he’s had on clay since his deep runs in 2019).
Daniil is generally a great underdog to bet on at online sportsbooks with a 48-65 record plus a 22% ROI and while it’s clearly his worst surface, he is still the world number 2 for a reason. When he finds form on clay he tends to have a good run and he clearly enjoys the match up. Tsitsipas’s superior clay prowess may shine through in the end but I would expect Medvedev to at least put up a good fight, so I like the look of +4.5 games.
Tamara Zidansek vs Paula Badosa (33)
Tuesday, June 08, 2021 - 06:00 AM EDT at Court Philippe Chatrier
I sound like a broken record but we were once against a game short of the over bet hitting yesterday, as Williams lost to and I can’t help but feel I should have taken a chance on the underdog like I did with Collins.
Turning to the quarter final we have an intriguing match up with rising talent Tamara Zidansek taking on the player with the most clay court wins of any woman in 2021, Paula Badosa.
The money line value lies with Zidansek at +250 (3.5), but I would expect Badosa to be a little too strong in the end. Nonetheless, I expect this to be anything but easy and history suggests there is value in the Over 20.5 games at -115 (1.87) with Bovada Sportsbook.
Zidansek has been playing superb tennis for large chunks of this week, with some ups and down along the way. Her opening round win against Andreescu (9-7 in the third set) and her comeback from down 0-6 against Siniakova showed real grit and belief. She broke Andreescu as she served for the match in the decider and against Siniakova, she saved 3 break points at 0-6, 3-3 and 0-40 before going on to win 6-2 in the third.
Those are the kind of wins that can make a player feel like they have a guardian angel, and on the whole she has looked increasingly impressive as the week has gone on. The signs were there pre tournament too, as she has an impeccable record 16-12 record as an underdog on clay for a 50% ROI.
Her two biggest priced matches on clay were a 4-6, 6-1, 3-6 loss to Barty in Madrid this year and a 5-7, 6-4, 6-8 loss to Muguruza last year at the French Open. Overall, she’s covered the total games line in 14 of her last 20 as an underdog on clay going back to 2018, including all 5 when it priced over +200 (3).
Badosa is clearly the better player and experience may come into play here, but she is not immune to nerves and this is her first slam quarter final after all. She isn’t as good for betting on long matches in general but she has still covered the line in 3 of 4 matches this week. In addition, just 6 of her 14 matches as favorite on clay this year have finished under the total games line.
I would not be surprised if Zidansek managed to win given her form this week, I couldn’t put anyone off but given that Badosa is 19-1 when priced up as the favorite this year (14-0 on clay), and in general has been playing at top 10 level on the surface, I lean towards Over.
*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.