We went one from two on day 4 as Harris just about got the job done in 5 sets while Collins lost 6 games in a row from 5-7 2-0 to foil the over. Quite unfortunate as we just needed another 2 holds from her to hit the 22 games mark ensuring a push as the worst outcome, but hopefully some of you went with my suggestion to back the first set overs. As we approach the mid-way point of this event, let’s see if we can find another couple of best bets to end week 1. Join me as I analyze day 6 in Melbourne and offer my value picks and predictions for Sportsbook Review!
Matteo Berrettini vs. Karen Khachanov
Saturday, February 13, 2021 – 01:00 AM EST at Melbourne Park
Click here for our real time tennis odds.
Khachanov has been quite a disappointment since reaching the top 20 with occasional signs of his high peak, such as defeating Djokovic to win the Paris Masters. Hence, he is firmly the underdog in this match despite Khachanov possessing, to my mind, a more rounded game and a higher peak on hard courts. Regardless, this should be a heavy-hitting, power-orientated match, and I would be surprised if either were able to win comfortably so over 40.5 games -111 (1.9) with BookMaker appeals.
They are both serve orientated with Khachanov standing 6’ 6” and Berrettini 6’ 4” and possess above average hold percentages and below average break percentages. Berrettini is particularly serve-reliant, having held 89% and broken 19% over the last 2 years.
Historically this has been a great bet for both. Khachanov at betting odds of +100 (2) to +500 (6) on indoor/outdoor hard has seen the over bet lose in just 17 of 50 matches (34%). Against a top 20 in the same price bracket the over bet has lost in 13 of 34 (38%).
Similarly, when Berrettini has been priced -500 (1.2) to -101 (1.99) on indoor/outdoor hard the over has lost 16 of 47 (34%). Against the top 20 priced -200 (1.5) to -101 (1.99) the over has only lost in 2 of 9 matches.
This week both have served very well with Khachanov holding 94.4% and Berrettini holding 97.1%. The conditions are medium to quick and the balls really fly through the court which should make it hard for either to get a lot of traction on return.
They’ve met 4 times, twice on grass, once on clay, and once on indoor hard. Berrettini won both meetings on grass with relative ease, but this was during his blazing hot run in the lead up to Wimbledon. Grass is also Khachanov’s worst surface as he is easily rushed in very quick conditions. Both the meetings on clay and indoor hard saw the over bet land in what were very serve orientated matches.
The tennis line isn’t amazing at 40.5, however, I would still have had the price around -140 (1.71) and certainly no higher than -125 (1.8). On a day that looks lacking in value, I’m happy to take what looks like a solid angle on this match.
Shelby Rogers vs. Anett Kontaveit
Saturday, February 13, 2021 – 03:00 AM EST at Melbourne Park
Click here for our real time tennis odds.
You can probably sense a theme emerging from my tennis picks this week. As mentioned at the beginning of the week, the Australian Open tends to be a bad betting heat for underdogs so over bets, game handicaps and longer priced favourites are usually my focus. Once again that angle makes sense to me in what should be a tight match up between Kontaveit and Rogers. I like the over 21 offered at -111 (1.9) at BookMaker.
These two are relatively tall with both standing at 5’ 9” and they have strong serves. Kontaveit has held 76.4% over the last year on hard courts while Rogers has held 77.5%. They have also both been serving well this week with Kontaveit holding 84% and Rogers 88%. Given the average hold percentage on the WTA is 63%, these are excellent numbers.
When Rogers has been priced at betting odds of +100 (2) to +500 (6) against top 50 opposition, the over has lost in 18 of the last 50 (36%). Just last week on these same courts she beat world number 18 Petra Martic 7-6 6-3 before losing 5-7 6-2 10-4 to world number 1 Ash Barty. In both matches the over landed and she is clearly in good enough form to hang with Kontaveit.
Kontaveit is similar with the over losing in just 20 of her last 50 at betting odds of -500 (1.2) to -101 (1.99) and in 16 of her 40 matches priced -200 (1.5) to -101 (1.99) against top 100 opposition on hard courts. In the warm up event she defeated Mattek-Sands 7-5 7-5 before losing 6-2 3-6 11-9 to Sakkari, and in her last match she defeated Watson 6-7 6-4 6-2.
The only recent head to head match went to 3 sets. Based on their immediate form, I would expect another tight encounter. I would have had this at 22 games at a price of -125 (1.8), so I’m more than happy taking the line and price on offer.
*The picks reflect the lines at the moment the writer made the plays, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.