ATP World Tour Finals Betting Analysis & Free Tennis Picks

Joao Mourato

Saturday, November 11, 2017 3:21 PM UTC

Saturday, Nov. 11, 2017 3:21 PM UTC

Join our expert tennis capper for his ATP World Tour Finals tournament analysis. Find out who the undeniable favorite is, as well as the main contender and the player to fade on this event. 

ATP World Tour Finals

The 2017 ATP Nitto Finals take place in London with Indoor Hard Court as the chosen surface for the season-ending tournament on the ATP World Tour.

Undeniable Favorite

Roger Federer is the most successful player in the history of the season finale. In addition to his incredible 81.25% winning record throughout his career on this tournament, the six-time champion has qualified for the ATP World Tour Finals for the 15th time. Despite his impressive numbers, the 36-year-old hasn’t won the title in London since 2011 with three defeats in the final – all against Novak Djokovic.

Taking a look now at Roger’s draw on this event, the no.2 seed is the undeniable favorite not only to win the ‘Boris Becker Group’ but also to lift the trophy in London. Even though we agree with Federer’s favoritism, it’s impossible to find any value on his current tennis betting odds to win the title at -147 at Pinnacle. With this in mind, our suggestion is for you to avoid placing any bet on Federer’s outright due to the lack of value at his current price.

Main Contender

The 16-time Grand Slam champion – Rafael Nadal – continues his quest for a first-ever title at the ATP World Tour Finals. Known as one of the greatest competitors in tennis history, Nadal is going through a great moment in his career with an outstanding 86.08% winning record in 2017. Nevertheless, the two-time runner-up might not be at 100% for this tournament after his recent withdrawal from the Rolex Paris Masters due to a knee injury.

Due to the concerns regarding Rafael’s physical condition, it’s hard to trust on the Spaniard at this moment. On the other hand, Nadal is far from an expert on these game conditions with a poor 68.09% career record on Indoor Hard Court. Having said that, our advice is for you to wait for Nadal’s first match against David Goffin on Monday in order to determine his physical condition for this tournament. Adding to this, the sportsbooks don't offer any value on the Spaniard's odds to win the group with his current price at -110.

Player to Fade

Dominic Thiem makes his second consecutive appearance at the ATP World Tour Finals in London. Despite his unquestionable quality, the last weeks haven’t been easy for Thiem with the world no.4 winning only 28.57% of the matches played since the US Open. Adding to this, the Austrian holds a terrible 50.75% career record on Indoor Hard Court.

Looking now at Dominic’s draw in London, the 24-year-old joins Rafael Nadal, Grigor Dimitrov and David Goffin on the ‘Pete Sampras Group’. Besides his lack of success in recent weeks, Thiem is by far the worst player of the group on these game conditions. On the other hand, Dominic only won 16.67% of the matches played throughout his career against top 10 opponents on this surface. For that reason, our recommendation is for you to fade the Austrian throughout this tournament, starting with Dimitrov’s moneyline on next Monday’s match against Thiem at -169 at 5Dimes

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