ATP Valencia Quarterfinals Top Tennis Pick: Pablo Cuevas vs. João Sousa

João Mourato

Thursday, October 29, 2015 8:10 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 29, 2015 8:10 PM UTC

Surprising week so far with 6 of 8 seeded players already eliminated. Join us while we analyze the ATP Valencia quarterfinals and provide the highest value tennis pick for this Friday.

Pablo Cuevas vs. João Sousa
João Sousa is for the first time on his career in Valencia’s quarterfinals after a three sets victory over Benoit Paire. Sousa is a tremendous competitor, always trying to play at a very high pace and taking advantage of his aggressive forehand.

The Indoor conditions are quite good for Sousa’s counter punching skills and aggressive baseline game, however the courts in Valencia are quite slow and the Portuguese game style suits better faster courts. Despite not being the best game conditions, João is already in quarterfinals with two good upsets.

Despite not playing in Valencia in the last four years, Pablo Cuevas is doing a great run this week. The Uruguayan was close from elimination in second round, after being set and break down against Bernard Tomic, however he never gave up and managed to turn the match.

The slower game conditions are very good for Cuevas consistent baseline game and he has been extremely solid on serve, winning 87.0% of service games this week. The ball bounces quite high and Pablo kick serve is a very effective weapon.

The h2h is 1 – 1 with Sousa winning the first match in Indoor Hard while Cuevas emerged victorious in the most recent meeting on clay last season.

Although Sousa won that first match on Indoor, Cuevas should have won that match. The Uruguayan was leading set and break up, served for the match but had a massive collapse, losing 9 straight games. Pablo managed to revenge that loss, last year in Bastad’s final, dismissing the Portuguese by 6 – 2 6 – 1.

As we already said, the game conditions are quite good for Cuevas and he has been serving at great level. Pablo’s kick serve bounces extremely high on this courts and Sousa won’t be able to get the ball very early like he uses to do.

Cuevas has more weapons from the baseline and is the better player on court. However, he’s not very strong mentally and there is always the possibility to choke under pressure. We’ll add the Uruguayan tennis odds as our top tennis pick because there is clear value on it, but advise that Sousa is the strongest mental player on court and might be a good idea to cash out if Cuevas gets close from winning the match.

Tennis Pick: Pablo Cuevas ML (+120) at Pinnacle

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