ATP US Open Tennis Picks: Big Serves on Offer for Day 9

João Mourato

Monday, September 7, 2015 6:45 PM UTC

Monday, Sep. 7, 2015 6:45 PM UTC

The best tennis picks on US Open Day 9 Men's Draw where the World No. 1 and defending champion will try to book a place in semi-finals. Tsonga and Cilic match-up, watch-out for Tsonga's big serve.

Novak Djokovic (1) vs Feliciano Lopez (18)
Feliciano Lopez is for the first time in quarter-finals of US Open, the Spanish was very close from being out of the event in 2nd round against Mardy Fish with the American serving for the match but was able to turn it and after that two straight sets win over an injured Milos Raonic and a very tired Fabio Fognini. For sure there is credit for Feliciano to reach this stage of the competition but he had a very good draw.

Novak Djokovic lost his first set in last match against an inspired Roberto Bautista Agut who performed at the best level of his career but Djokovic managed to find a way to overcome the Spanish on the baseline in order to take the match in four sets.

Djokovic leads the h2h 5–0 and there isn’t much Lopez can do to bother the Serbian. Feliciano hasn’t been able to serve at a very high level, he’s averaging 59% first serve in and he’ll need to serve above 65% to create problems to Djokovic, otherwise he will give too many chances for the World No.1 to play on his second serve. One of Lopez biggest weapons is to explore his opponent’s backhands going to the net after playing to their backhand but when he faces a player with a solid backhand he has many problems. Yesterday against Fabio he only won 29 of 47 points at the net with Fognini making a lot of passing shots and this time against Djokovic he’ll have even more problems.

Novak knows that in order to win this event he needs to be as fresh as possible in the semi-finals and final so he should get this in three easy sets and we’ll take the tennis picks on Djokovic.

Tennis Pick: Novak Djokovic -7.5 at -116 at BetOnline

Must Read: WTA Best Value Bets Across the Board for Day 9

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (19) vs Marin Cilic (9)
Defending champion Marin Cilic keeps his quest for a second title in New York and despite presenting a lower level when compared to last year the Croatian has been serving very well which has been a huge help for him. In 4th round he was a in tough spot playing a 3rd set tie break against Jeremy Chardy with 1–1 in sets and just started to fire aces after aces that were crucial for him to take that set and also the match.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is the only player in competition who hasn’t been broken so far, the French relies on his big serve to get many free points and also on his forehand that is clearly his best shot. This is the only Grand Slam event where Tsonga hasn’t been able to reach semi-finals but has a great opportunity for that this year.

Tsonga is the favorite to win this match at -152 and he deserves to be considered favorite, however this price is too low and has no value to bet on. Both players have big serves and with a high probability of one or more tie breaks where the % of first serve in might be crucial the randomness on the match increases so we can’t get a value bet on this price. Our suggestion on ML is to wait for it to drift until the match starts or even wait for an in-play opportunity where Tsonga should reach a higher value than the one presented before the match.

One market that has some value is the Over, like I said these are two big servers and this match should have two tie breaks. With two tie breaks and 4 sets the possibility of winning the Over 42 is very good so we’ll take it with the tennis odds of -104.

Tennis Pick: Over 42 at -104 at Pinnacle

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