ATP US Open Tennis Odds, Value Picks & Tournament Futures

João Mourato

Wednesday, August 26, 2015 11:54 AM GMT

Djokovic is the ranking leader & outright tennis betting favorite to win the US Open 2015 title. Find out which players we forecast will go deep and which will go out early.

The last Major of the season is around the corner, stay with us while we take a look into the men competition to determine the players with more chances to lift the trophy.

 

Main Favorites
Novak Djokovic is the main favorite for the US Open title and he fully deserves that status after a remarkable season with Australian Open title, Wimbledon title and French Open final. However the Serbian has struggled since Wimbledon to present his best tennis and his serve has clearly been affected by some physical issues. In Montreal was affected by sore right elbow, losing in the final against Murray, while in Cincinnati showed some signs of abdominal pain in his match against Dolgopolov that clearly affected his serve speed (in that match was averaging 114 mph and after feeling the pain the speed decreased to 107 mph).

The Serbian is priced at +121 for this event which is quite low for the shape he has presented in past weeks and also having in consideration the problems he always had in this tournament with only 1 career title.

Andy Murray is the third seed, but he follows Djokovic in the favorite list to win the tournament. 2014 season was very tough for Andy with a back injury affecting him, however in 2015 his level of game has clearly increased and Murray even managed to win some titles on clay.

Andy managed to win recently Montreal, but in Cincinnati wasn’t able to keep the level showing some tiredness. That has been the biggest problem for Murray, this year already lost some matches against Djokovic where he just collapsed physically (Australian Open lost 6 – 7 7 – 6 3 – 6 0 – 6; Miami lost 6 – 7 6 – 4 0 – 6; French Open lost 3 – 6 3 – 6 7 – 5 7 – 5 1 – 6). We can see that Murray was able to put a very good fight against Djokovic, but there was a point where he just got completely empty and couldn’t be competitive at all. The positive side is that Murray was finally able to win a match against Djokovic, 6 – 4 4 – 6 6 – 3 in Montreal, but at best of five on Hard Court he doesn’t defeat Novak since US Open 2012.

There are good value tennis odds on Murray at +396 to win the event, not only has he been playing high quality tennis but he also managed to defeat Djokovic in Montreal which was for sure a massive boost to his confidence.

Roger Federer is the third on the favorites list with a price of +404 and is looking for his 6th US Open title, the Suisse won five straight times between 2004 and 2008, but since then the best he did was reaching the final once in 2009. 

Roger is having quite an impressive year on Hard Court with a 21 – 2 record and leads the h2h this year with Novak on Hard 2 – 1. Federer decided to skip Montreal in order to be at 100% in Cincinnati and his level was outstanding on that event not losing a single set, in fact the World No. 2 wasn’t broken a single time during the tournament winning an average of 84.0% with first serve and 71.7% with second serve. Roger is playing a very agressive tennis and that allows him to get quick and easy wins in first round against lower level players which might be crucial for him to reach fresher to last stages.

Roger is extremelly confident at the time and probably playing some of the best tennis of his career. His ability to win matches with quick points is one of his weapons in order to be in great shape in last rounds and there is good value on him at +404.

 

Players to Keep an Eye On
Stan Wawrinka (+1478) is always a very dangerous player on Grand Slam, the French Open and former Australian Open champion seems to be able to perform at his best on the biggest stages. This year Stan has a 16 – 2 record on Majors and was only defeated in fifth set against Djokovic and Gasquet in Australian Open and Wimbledon, respectively.

Grigor Dimitrov (+3753) is not having very good results in last months, however his level of game in Cincinnati was already very good with clear chances to win against Murray and his biggest improve was his forehand which was much more aggressive.

Dominic Thiem (+54439) is clearly underrated for this tournament, the Austrian lost the two matches he played on Hard Court but that wasn’t surprising after such a long and demanding run on clay the weeks before. Dom reached 4th round last season and this year as 20th seed has good chances to go far on this competition.

 

Who Might Go Out Early?
Marin Cilic is defending champion and priced +2594 but this price is overrated by the fact that he is defending champion. Cilic has been playing pretty poor tennis, the key to his success last season was the high level of his serve, but this year hasn’t been able to keep that service level with an average of 77.6% hold of serve on Hard Court and should go out early on this competition.

Rafael Nadal keeps far from his best, but keeps being one of the main favorite at +1421. In Montreal was completely outplayed by Nishikori not finding anything to bother the Japanese on that match. Rafa is a two time US Open champion and his competitive spirit makes him always a tough opponent, however it's very unlikely that he can get into later stages of the tournament.

We've Prepared WTA Tennis Picks for US Open, too

Biggest Doubt?
Kei Nishikori decided to pull out from Cincinnati due to a minor hip injury but the Japanese is known for being an injury prone player. Last year Kei did a great run reaching the final and he has a very suitable game for Hard Court with his amazing shot making skills and counter puncher ability. If Kei is in shape he has clear chances to fight for the trophy, however it is better to wait and watch how he performs on first match to have a better idea on his physical condition to determine if there is value on him at +1239.

 

Free Tennis Picks, All prices from Pinnacle Sports
Andy Murray +396 and Roger Federer +404 are the two players with higher value to win the tournament.

Stan Wawrinka +1478, Grigor Dimitrov +3753 and Dominic Thiem +54439 are three players with clear chances to go deep and might be interesting to open a trading position on them to collect some profit on later stages of the event.

If Nishikori performs at good level in first round it is interesting to open also a position on him at +1239, but is important to make sure he’s in good physical shape before doing that kind of bet.

Also keep an eye on Cilic and Nadal, they are our tennis picks to leave the tournament early and might be good investment to go against them when facing a more competitive and higher level player.