ATP US Open: Day 2 Spread Betting Analysis & Free Picks

João Mourato

Monday, August 31, 2015 12:40 PM GMT

The players from the bottom half of the draw get in action this Tuesday and we’re going to analyze the spreads of four of main favorites from men competition.

The players from the bottom half of the draw get in action this Tuesday and we’re going to analyze the spreads of four of main favorites from men competition.

 

Leonardo Mayer vs. Roger Federer (2)
Roger Federer will try to extend his winning streak after claiming Cincinnati title and his first match will be against Leonardo Mayer. The Argentinean is always a dangerous player to face with his strong serve and powerful groundstrokes and last year he put up a big fight in Shanghai losing only in third set tie break against Federer.

Mayer’s preparation for this tournament wasn’t the best with 2 wins and 3 losses, but those defeats where all against quality opponents (Nishikori, Chardy and Anderson). Leonardo needs a high % of first serve in, and on the last three tournaments has been obtained pretty decent numbers with 64.3%, however seems to be struggling to keep a consistent level in longer matches (lost 2 – 6 and 1 – 6 in third set against Chardy and Anderson, respectively).

Federer has been performing at a very high level and what is more impressive is how easily and fast he can win points. Roger wasn’t broken a single time in Cincinnati and didn’t even face a break point in last two matches against Murray and Djokovic which gives him a huge confidence for this tournament.

The handicap for Federer is -8.5 at +100 which is a pretty dangerous line to bet against a player with good weapons like Mayer. Leonardo should be able to level the match in first set / first set and a half but after that Federer might cruise into an easier end of second set and third set. Our advice is to wait for the end of first set (which should be closer solved with only one break of serve or even on tie break), and wait for a period in second set where Mayer starts to make more errors and his game begins to crumble which should allow Federer to win the second and especially the third sets with bigger margin.

 

Tomas Berdych (6) vs. Bjorn Fratangelo (W)
After a great start of season, Tomas Berdych level hasn’t been as consistent and high like in the first months of the year. In Cincinnati lost against Dolgopolov, in quarter-finals, not being able to deal with Dolgopolov’s irreverence, however still feels very comfortable against more consistent baseline players (in Cincinnati defeated 6 – 2 6 – 3 Bellucci and 6 – 0 6 – 1 Robredo). Fratangelo is going to play his first career main draw of a Grand Slam event after receiving a Wild Card, this will be also his first match against a top 10 player (the highest ranked he has ever faced was Jack Sock in Cincinnati where he lost 1 – 6 2 – 6). Despite being American, Fratangelo’s game suits better on clay courts - he’s a former Junior French Open champion -where his good baseline movement and defensive skills are more effective.

The handicap for Berdych for this match is -9.5 at -101 and despite the high tennis odds it is a match where Tomas has very good chances to cover the spread. Fratangelo is a kind of opponent that the Czech likes to face, the American doesn’t have a very strong serve and will give many chances for Berdych to get into rallies on return. Also Fratangelo’s groundstrokes won’t make much damage on Berdych who has a good opportunity to start with an easy win here covering this spread.

 

Stan Wawrinka (5) vs. Albert Ramos
Stan Wawrinka didn’t play very good tennis before this event, but the Suisse has already showed that he manages to raise his level on Grand Slams as he already did previously this year with a 16 – 2 record on Slams in 2015. In the first round he will face the Spanish Albert Ramos who is clearly a clay court player, however he can be pretty competitive on Hard Court as he has already showed this year by reaching 3rd round in Indian Wells where he lost to Djokovic 5 – 7 3 – 6. Ramos didn’t play a single preparation tournament for this event and this will be his first Hard Court match since March but he has always been a very tough match-up for Wawrinka. Stan leads h2h 4 – 0, however those matches were never easy (Ramos won a set in two of those matches and lost the other two in two close sets). The biggest problem that Ramos brings to Wawrinka is his consistency and how well he uses his forehand, the Spanish player returns almost every shots and opens the court very well with his crossed and inside out forehand.

The spread line for this match is –8 at +108, but this is a pretty tricky match to bet on. In first place is the first Hard Court match for Ramos in almost half a year and there isn’t a real indicator on how he will perform (he played at very good level in March, but that much time without a match on this surface should be quite hard). Also Wawrinka’s mindset is not always the best, there are plenty of matches where Stan plays at “minimum effort level” winning the sets with only one break of serve or just taking the set on a tie break. For sure Wawrinka is a player with much more weapons while Ramos just relies on his baseline consistency and tries to force some mistakes. This match should be all about Stan’s mindset, if he’s determined he should take this very easily, otherwise Ramos is a good competitor and will give a good fight. Our advice is to skip this one because there is too much unknown variables and the level of speculation on this match is too high and not long-term profitable.

Must Read: WTA US Open Tennis Odds & Top Plays For Day 1

Nick Kyrgios vs. Andy Murray (3)
The 2012 US Open champion, Andy Murray, will look to extend his winning streak over Nick Kyrgios. The British won the three previous meetings without losing a single set and is the heavy favorite to take this one. After being involved in a big controversy with Wawrinka in Roger Cup, the Australian struggled with a back injury in Cincinnati losing in the first round against Gasquet. Kyrgios has a very strong serve while Andy has one of the best returns in the game and that’s one of the major reasons why Kyrgios can’t make much damage against Murray.

The spread line for this match is -7.0 at +117 and Murray should be able to cover it. Kyrgios is still too affected by the polemic with Wawrinka and might struggle to keep his focus during all match. We saw in Wimbledon that Kyrgios struggled to maintain a competitive mindset and he just gave the second set 1 – 6 to Gasquet not putting any real effort. Murray is a very tough opponent for him and also extremelly hard mentally for Kyrgios to deal with a player who can return so many of his serves. Murray should take this in straight sets and also cover this spread line.

 

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For the September 1st we advise to take the spreads on Andy Muray -7.0 at +117 and Tomas Berdych -9.5 at -101.

Roger Federer -8.5 handicap at +100 is a dangerous line and if Roger can cover it, should only be with a strong second and  third set, so our suggestion is to wait for the end of the first/middle of second set where the possibilities of value can be higher.

Stan Wawrinka -8.0 at +108 doesn’t suit our investment parameters, too many unknown variables makes this more a gamble than an investment where there is just too much speculation.