ATP Paris Betting Analysis – Best Plays & Free Tennis Picks

Joao Mourato

Tuesday, November 1, 2016 8:27 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 1, 2016 8:27 PM UTC

Everything at stake this week in Paris with Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray fighting for the world no.1 spot. Find out our BNP Paribas Open tournament analysis, as well as the highest value tennis bets to place.

ATP Paris

The BNP Paribas Masters takes place in Paris with Indoor Hard Court as the chosen surface.


Main Contenders

This promises to be an exciting event since Andy Murray is very close from becoming the new world no.1. However, Novak Djokovic won’t go down without a fight, saying that Andy is playing his best tennis ever and deserves to be in the position of being world no.1. But that doesn’t just depend on him.

These two players have dominated the ATP World Tour over the last two years. Taking a look to the 17 Masters 1000 events played since 2015, 82.35% of those were won by Djokovic or Murray. With this in mind, it’s unlikely to see any other winner on this event, especially with so much at stake.

Let’s take a look now to both players’ draw.

Djokovic won’t have an easy task in Paris with extremely dangerous players on his quarter such as Gilles Muller, Grigor Dimitrov and Marin Cilic. Looking now to Novak’s potential opponents in the semifinals, Stan Wawrinka is the highest ranked player on the Serbian’s half of the draw. However, Stan already said that he’s still experiencing some tiredness after his triumph at the US Open. For that reason, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Wawrinka losing in the early stages of this competition. Having said that, we advise you to stay away from Stan’s outright odds to win this event at +1400 at Coral.
Despite Djokovic's tough draw, we expect to see the defending champion making it into his 5th career final in Paris.

On the other hand, Murray seems to have an easier task this week. Tomas Berdych is the toughest player on Andy’s quarter yet, the British won all their last five meetings, dropping only one set to the Czech. In the semifinals, Murray might face Kei Nishikori or Milos Raonic. Neither of the two is an easy opponent but seems unlikely to see any of these two surprising the three-time Grand Slam champion. Having said that, we also expect to see Murray in the BNP Paribas Open final next Sunday.

The Sportsbooks agree with our analysis, pricing Murray and Djokovic as the two main favorites to lift the trophy at +188 and +175, both at BetVictor. Even though we believe in Djokovic’s triumph, we have to agree with the current prices. Therefore, our suggestion is for you to add both to your betting picks, a similar approach to the one recommended a few weeks ago in Shanghai where Andy emerged victorious.


Player to keep an eye

After reaching the semifinals in 2012, Gilles Simon is looking for another good result in the BNP Paribas Open. Despite his poor start, with Simon dropping the opening set against Julien Benneteau, the French bounced back with a high quality performance. Playing in French soil clearly helps Gilles with a solid 63.64% winning record. Looking now to Simon’s draw in Paris, the French faces Roberto Bautista Agut in the following round. Although Agut’s extraordinary year, the Spaniard is clearly struggling to perform at his best after so many matches in 2016. In the 3rd round Simon might face the 7th seed, Tomas Berdych. These two players know each other well with Gilles winning 58.33% of their previous 12 meetings. The Czech was far from impressive on his debut against João Sousa and for that reason, Simon might be too solid for Berdych.

With this in mind, we recommend you to take advantage of Simon’s betting odds to win his 2nd round match against Bautista Agut at -118 at Pinnacle. If Gilles is available above +100 in the following round against Berdych, he’s once again a valuable player to bet on.

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