ATP Mutua Madrid Open Semifinals - Can Novak Djokovic Surprise Rafael Nadal?

Joao Mourato

Friday, May 12, 2017 7:15 PM UTC

Friday, May. 12, 2017 7:15 PM UTC

Join our expert tennis capper for his ATP Madrid semifinals analysis. Find out our top tennis play for this Saturday's action and why you should place this valuable bet.

Rafael Nadal (4) vs. Novak Djokovic (2)

The defending champion – Novak Djokovic – couldn’t ask for an easier way to get into the semifinals after Kei Nishikori's withdrawal from the competition due to a wrist injury. As we mentioned in our previous analysis, Djokovic is slowly returning to his best level after a disappointing start to the season. Looking now at Novak’s numbers throughout the tournament, the highlight goes to his service stats with the Serbian winning 88.50% of his service games in Madrid.

Regardless of this Saturday’s result, Rafael Nadal already secured the leadership on the ATP Race to London. Known as one of the best clay-court players in history, Nadal presents an astonishing 34 – 5 career record on this event. Adding to this, the Spaniard is going through a great moment after winning the title in Monte Carlo and Barcelona. Despite his undeniable quality on this surface, the fast court conditions in Madrid are not the best for Nadal’s game style.

These two players feature one of the greatest rivalry in tennis history with Djokovic leading on the h2h by 26 – 23.

Despite the balance on the h2h, Djokovic won 11 of their last 12 encounters – including four on clay. With the Serbian raising his level match after match and due to his recent success over the Spaniard, it’s impossible to find any value on Nadal’s betting odds. On the other hand, the sportsbooks present a tremendous value for Djokovic’s victory. With this in mind, our suggestion is for you to add the defending champion to your betting picks to secure a place in Sunday’s final.  

Free Tennis Pick: Novak Djokovic ML (+306)
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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