ATP Monte Carlo Day 6: Top Plays for Friday

João Mourato

Thursday, April 14, 2016 9:00 PM UTC

Thursday, Apr. 14, 2016 9:00 PM UTC

Join us on our daily coverage of the ATP Monte Carlo event. Find out our top tennis picks for Day 6 and why should you place these two valuable tennis picks.

Rafael Nadal (5) vs. Stan Wawrinka (4)
On our ATP Monte Carlo Day 5 analysis, we picked Rafael Nadal to cover his spread against Dominic Thiem and the Spaniard match the expectations with a 7 – 5 6 – 3 triumph. It was a monumental battle between two extraordinary players yet, Nadal showed why he’s considered the best clay court player of all-times. After struggling in the previous months with lack of confidence, the Spaniard played extremely well under pressure – saving 15 of the 17 break points he faced.

After a tough debut against Philipp Kohlschreiber, Stan Wawrinka had no problems on his 3rd round match against Gilles Simon, dismissing the French by 6 – 1 6 – 2. As it happened with Nadal, Stan also played very well the pressure points, saving 7 out of 8 break points and converting 55% of his break point chances. Despite his victory by big margins, Wawrinka was far from his best on his serve, winning only 59% and 58% of the points with his first and second serve, respectively.

This will be the 18th career meeting between these two players, with Nadal leading on h2h by 14 – 3.

Even though Nadal’s big lead on h2h, Stan won three of the last five meetings with the Suisse winning also their previous contests on clay – 7 – 6 6 – 2 last year in Rome. No doubts that Wawrinka can cause problems to Nadal with his powerful groundstrokes yet, Nadal can never be underestimated on clay, especially after the way he played the important points against Thiem. We believe there is value on Nadal’s tennis odds for this contest and for that reason, we suggest placing a bet on him for this contest.

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Free Tennis Pick: Rafael Nadal ML (-118) 
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker


Gael Monfils (13) vs. Marcel Granollers (LL)
Gael Monfils experienced no problems on his 3rd round match against Jiri Vesely, covering his spread with a 6 – 1 6 – 2 victory. As we mentioned in our previous article, this is a great chance for Gael to reach the latter stages of the competition, after losing at the semifinals last year against Tomas Berdych. Monfils has been a very solid investment this year when priced as favorite, with an 18 – 2 record and rewarding those who always played him as favorite with a 14.1% ROI in 2016.

After losing on the last stage of the qualifying round against Daniel Gimeno-Traver, Marcel Granollers replaced David Ferrer on the main draw as lucky loser after Ferrer’s withdraw. For the first time on his career, Granollers reaches the quarterfinals of this event after two great victories against Alexander Zverev and David Goffin. Marcel is never an easy opponent to face, with a very solid baseline game and always mixing things up with slices, drop shots and rushing very often to the net.

These two players will face each other for the 5th time on their careers, with Granollers leading by 3 – 1 on the h2h.

In our opinion, there are only two tournaments throughout the year where we can be sure that Gael is going to give everything on court – the French Open and this Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters. Monfils knows that Granollers can be a very tricky opponent and despite his negative h2h against him, we believe that the French should win this contest. Having said that, our advice for this match is once again to add Gael’s spread to your tennis picks, like we did with success on the previous round against Vesely.

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Free Tennis Pick: Gael Monfils -4 (-110)
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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