ATP Monte Carlo Day 4: Top Plays for Wednesday

João Mourato

Tuesday, April 12, 2016 9:24 PM GMT

Join us on our daily coverage of the ATP Monte Carlo event. Find out our top tennis picks for the Day 4 and why should you place these two valuable tennis picks.

Philipp Kohlschreiber vs. Stan Wawrinka (4)
The 2014 Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters champion, Stan Wawrinka, returns to competition after a disappointing 2nd round loss against Andrey Kuznetsov in Miami. This is Stan’s first match on clay since his remarkable run at the French Open last year, where Wawrinka won his second Grand Slam career title. Despite Stan’s tremendous quality on this surface, the first match on a different surface after so many months is never easy. Last season Wawrinka couldn’t match the expectations in Monte Carlo, losing on the 3rd round to Grigor Dimitrov in one of his worst performances ever.

Known as one of the most talented players on tour, Philipp Kohlschreiber is never an easy opponent to face with 24 victories throughout his career against top 10 players. The best word to describe Kohlschreiber’s season so far is “consistency”, with the German winning 10 out of 11 matches where he was priced as favorite while as underdog he emerged victorious in 2 of the 7 contests he played. The German started his campaign in Monte Carlo with a good straight sets victory over Borna Coric.

This will be the fourth career meeting between these two players, with Wawrinka winning all the previous three. They faced each other earlier this year in Dubai, with Stan claiming the victory by 7 – 5 6 – 1.

Despite Wawrinka’s lead on h2h, Kohlschreiber is a high quality player and he won’t go down without a fight. Adding to this, Phillip has the advantage of having played in the previous round while Wawrinka will play his first official match on clay of the year. We expect a good start from Kohlschreiber, taking advantage of a slow start from Stan to steal the first set but after that the Suisse should turn the match around. With that in mind, we’ll add Kohlschreiber’s tennis odds to win the first set on this contest.

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Free Tennis Pick: Philipp Kohlschreiber 1st set winner (+167)
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

 

Pablo Cuevas vs. Milos Raonic (10)
On our ATP Monte Carlo Day 3 analysis, we picked Pablo Cuevas to win his match against Daniel Gimeno-Traver in straight sets; however, the Uruguayan couldn’t take advantage of his break point chances – converting only 2 out of 11. Despite not being at his best level, Cuevas found a way to emerge victorious by 7 – 6 6 – 7 7 – 6 after more than three hours on court.

The 2014 and 2015 Monte Carlo Masters quarterfinalist, Milos Raonic, is looking for another good run on this event. Even though clay is Raonic’s worst surface, the Canadian improved on this surface in recent years yet, his game level on clay is still miles away from the level produced on Hard Court or grass. Milos made his debut against the wild card Marco Cecchinato, defeating the Italian by 6 – 3 7 – 5.

These two players will face each other for the third time on their careers, with one victory for each side so far.

Like we mentioned in our previous article, one of Cuevas biggest weapon on this surface is his kick serve. Pablo can open the court very well with that serve and he should explore Raonic’s weaker baseline movement. Both can protect their serve very well and although the courts in Monte Carlo are quite slow, we believe that at least one tie break will be played. This should be an extremely close contest with a high probability of a third set and for that reason, we suggest adding the Over to your tennis picks as the highest value bet for this match.

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Free Tennis Pick: Over 22.5 (-139)
Best Line Offered: at bet365