ATP Miami Day 11: Semifinals Top Plays

João Mourato

Friday, April 1, 2016 12:24 AM GMT

Join us on our daily coverage of the ATP Miami event. Find out our top tennis picks for the men's semifinals matches that take place this Friday and why should you place these two valuable bets.

Novak Djokovic (1) vs. David Goffin (15)
The five-time Miami Open champion, Novak Djokovic, extended his winning streak to 12 games after his quarterfinals triumph over Tomas Berdych. It has been an outstanding start of year for Djokovic, winning 26 of the 27 matches played in 2016 – his only loss occurred in Dubai against Feliciano Lopez, where the Serbian retired due to injury. Dominic Thiem was the toughest opponent that Djokovic faced so far on this event and in our ATP & WTA Miami Day 8 analysis, we picked the Austrian to give a good fight; however, the world no.1 was too strong mentally, saving 14 of the 15 break points he faced.

After reaching his first Masters 1000 semifinal in Indian Wells, David Goffin repeats the result in Miami after a great comeback against Gilles Simon at the quarterfinals. Goffin has always been an extremely talented player, with tremendous shot making and counter punching skills, but the Belgian often struggled to perform at a consistent level. As we mentioned in our Day 9 preview – where we picked the Over 2.5 on his match against Simon – one of the keys for Goffin’s recent success is his first serve %, with the Belgian placing an average of 63.3% in Indian Wells and Miami while his career average is 57.6%.

This will be the fourth career meeting between these two players, with Djokovic winning the previous three.

Despite Djokovic’s dominance on the h2h, Goffin is never an easy opponent to face and he showed that last year in Cincinnati, where he forced Djokovic to play a third set. David is known for struggling to perform at his best under pressure but with nothing to lose on this match, he should give a good fight to the defending champion. Having said that, we suggest adding the Over to your tennis picks.

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Free Tennis Pick: Over 19.5 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

 

Nick Kyrgios (24) vs. Kei Nishikori (6)
We picked Nick Kyrgios as one of our best plays for the ATP & WTA Miami Day 10 and the Australian matched the expectations, with a 6 – 4 7 – 6 victory over Milos Raonic. It was far from Kyrgios best performance on serve, placing only 57% first serve, 8 aces and 6 double faults; however, the Australian played extremely well under pressure – saving the five break points he faced. With this victory, Nick reaches his first Masters 1000 semifinal on his 9th career appearance on a Masters event.

In one of the best matches on the ATP World Tour this year so far, Kei Nishikori saved five match points before claiming the victory on a third set tie break against Gael Monfils. Known for struggling to perform at his best on hot conditions, the Japanese had a hard time on this match where the conditions were brutal – around 86ºF (30ºC) and humidity close to 70%. Despite all this, Nishikori showed all his determination and found a way to emerge victorious, booking a place on his second career Miami Open semifinals.

These two players will face each other for the second time on their career, with Nishikori winning the previous last year in Shanghai by 1 – 6 6 – 4 6 – 4.

Once again, Nick Kyrgios will play on the night session but this time, the conditions won’t help him. Nishikori will be pleased for playing on cooler conditions, where he feels extremely comfortable. It’s never easy to win free points on serve against a player like Nishikori, especially on slower conditions like the ones where these two will play. With this in mind, we believe there is value on Nishikori’s tennis odds and we advise you to place a bet on him. 

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Free Tennis Pick: Kei Nishikori ML (-147)
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle