ATP Miami Betting Analysis & Free Tennis Picks

Roger Federer

Joao Mourato

Friday, March 24, 2017 4:46 PM GMT

Join our expert tennis capper for his ATP Miami tournament analysis. Find out who is the undeniable favorite as well as the main contender and the player to keep an eye on this event.

Major Absences

Due to injury, Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic won’t play the Miami Open this year. These two are not only the highest ranked players on the ATP World Tour but also the champions of all the last six editions of this event. With their absence one thing is certain, we’ll have a new Miami Open champion since 2010 when Andy Roddick won the title.

 

Undeniable Favorite

Roger Federer continues his impressive run in 2017. After winning the Australian Open title earlier this season, Federer didn’t drop a single set on his successful journey at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells. Due to his brilliant results, Roger is the undeniable favorite to lift the trophy in Miami with William Hill offering +350 on his outright.

Even though Federer won’t have an easy task with a potential 3rd round clash against Juan Martin Del Potro, it’s impossible to go against the Swiss at the moment. With this in mind, our suggestion is for you to place a small bet on Federer to win his 3rd career title in Miami.

 

Main Contender

The four-time Miami Open runner-up – Rafael Nadal – is still looking for his first career title in Key Biscayne. Despite his recent improvements, Nadal keeps far from his best with the Spaniard not as strong as he used to be under pressure. Besides losing his previous two finals earlier this year in Melbourne and Acapulco, Nadal only won 39.50% of the break points played on his opponents’ serve while his career average is 45.20%.

Taking a look now at Nadal’s draw in Miami, the Spaniard is the main favorite to reach the final on the bottom half of the draw. However, it won’t be easy for Rafael to make it into the decisive match with so many dangerous opponents on his half of the draw such as Grigor Dimitrov, Milos Raonic and Kei Nishikori. Even though we believe in a good campaign from the former world no.1, we can’t find any value on his current betting odds to lift the trophy at +600 at Coral.

 

Player to Keep an Eye

At the age of 23, Lucas Pouille is already one of the best players in the world with the French currently ranked as world no.15. Playing on the big stages brings the best out of Pouille with two appearances in Grand Slam quarterfinals last season. Besides his tremendous success on majors, Lucas also reached the ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Rome semifinals and the 4th round in Miami, Monte Carlo, Shanghai and Paris.

Pouille starts his campaign in Miami against the home player, Donald Young. Even though Donald was responsible for Lucas’ defeat last week in Indian Wells, we expect a different outcome this time. Looking now at Pouille’s potential opponents in the following rounds, the French might face high quality opponents such as Pablo Cuevas and Marin Cilic.

Despite the tough challenges ahead of him, this is a great opportunity for Pouille to reach the quarterfinals in Miami for the first time in his career. Having said that, our suggestion is for you to add Pouille to your betting picks, starting with his opening match against Young at -200 at Pinnacle.