ATP Masters Monte Carlo Betting Final: Nadal vs. Nishikori

João Mourato

Saturday, April 21, 2018 9:02 PM UTC

Saturday, Apr. 21, 2018 9:02 PM UTC

Join our expert tennis capper for his top betting selection for the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters Final. He'll provide a detailed analysis, explaining why you should grab this betting pick.

Rafael Nadal (1) vs. Kei Nishikori

Kei Nishikori continues his quest for first ATP Masters 1000 title. Known as one of the greatest ball strikers in the game, the 28-year-old recovered from a set down to beat Alexander Zverev in the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters semifinals. The former world No.4 has scored back-to-back wins against top 10 players for the first time since the 2014 US Open. Adding to this, Nishikori will play his first ATP Masters 1000 final since the 2016 Rogers Cup in Toronto.

Rafael Nadal remains on course for an historic 11th title in Monte Carlo. The 31-year-old extended his run of consecutive sets won on clay to 34 after a 6 – 4 6 – 1 win over Grigor Dimitrov in the semifinals. Nadal must win a third consecutive title in Sunday’s final in order to retain the number one ranking. Despite Dimitrov’s undeniable quality, the Bulgarian couldn’t find the answer to Rafael’s playing style with 39 unforced errors against only 21 from the Spaniard. On the other hand, the world No.1 only faced two break points in the match with Dimitrov winning just 27.78% of the points played on Nadal’s second serve.

These two players will face each other for the 12th time in their careers with Nadal leading on the h2h by 9 – 2.

As the h2h suggests, Nadal is a terrible match-up for Nishikori. Despite Kei’s victory on their most recent encounter at the 2016 Summer Olympics, the Japanese never won a match against this opponent on clay. The sportsbooks are well aware of Rafael’s dominance with 5Dimes offering only -1250 for his victory. Due to the low price on Nadal’s moneyline, our suggestion is for you to add the under to your betting picks as the most valuable play for this final.

Free Tennis Pick: Under 19 Games (-114)
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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