ATP Madrid Betting Analysis & Free Winning Tennis Picks

João Mourato

Monday, May 2, 2016 8:10 PM UTC

Monday, May. 2, 2016 8:10 PM UTC

The Spanish capital hosts one of the biggest events on the ATP World Tour, with the best players fighting for Madrid's glory. Join us and find out who holds the most valuable tennis bets.

ATP Madrid

The Mutua Madrid Open takes place in Madrid and will be played on Clay.


Main Contenders
After a disappointing early loss in Monte Carlo against Jiri Vesely, Novak Djokovic is looking to regain his dominance in Madrid. Djokovic returns to this event after a two-year absence, with his previous appearance in 2013 when he lost on the 2nd round against Grigor Dimitrov. When looking at Djokovic’s prior record on all the Masters 1000 events that take place on clay – Monte Carlo, Madrid and Rome – this one in Madrid is where Novak records his worst results – 76.92% winning record & 1 title vs. 87.18% winning record in Rome & 4 titles and 77.78% winning record in Monte Carlo & 2 titles. Djokovic is the highest ranked played on this event and the main threats that he might find on his path into the final are: Kei Nishikori, Stan Wawrinka, Milos Raonic and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. No doubts that Djokovic is not only the main favorite on top half of the draw to reach the final, but also the main contender for the title; however, the price offered for the Serbian to grab the title is not enough for us to find value on it, with Djokovic’s tennis odds at -125 on bet365.

The three-time ATP Madrid champion, Rafael Nadal, will try to extend his good momentum after winning the titles in Monte Carlo and Barcelona. Nadal is returning to his best tennis, playing not only at a very high level but also incredible strong on pressure situations. Looking at Nadal’s numbers under pressure on the two clay court events that he won, the Spaniard saved 69.6% of the break points he faced, which is even better than his career average on this surface – 66.7%.

Nadal is the main contender on bottom half of the draw and he shouldn’t experience many problems on the first matches, where he might face two great shot makers – Andrey Kuznetsov and David Goffin. The first test might take place at the quarterfinals where Nadal can face Dominic Thiem.

The Austrian already defeated Nadal earlier this year in Buenos Aires yet, it was Rafael who won the previous meeting between them in Monte Carlo and the same should happen here. A rematch from last year’s final might take place at the semifinals, with Nadal and Andy Murray fighting for a place at the final.

Last year it was Murray who emerged victorious yet, Nadal should revenge that loss and defeat the British, like it happened recently in Monte Carlo’s semifinals. Nadal has good chances of reaching the final where he won’t have an easy task, but if there is a surface where he can beat Djokovic is this one. With this in mind, we believe the Spaniard’s price for the title presents some value at +275 on bet365.


Player to keep an eye on
It won’t be easy for Andy Murray to defend his title this year. Last season Murray surprised the world by winning his first Masters 1000 title on clay after defeating Rafael Nadal in the final. This will be Andy’s second tournament of the year on clay, with the world no.2 reaching Monte Carlo semifinals couple weeks ago where he only lost to Nadal in three sets.

There are some dangerous players on Murray’s quarter such as David Ferrer, Tomas Berdych or Gilles Simon; however, the British should overcome all of them and book a place at the semifinals, where he might face Nadal once again. Having said that, we suggest adding Murray to your tennis picks until the semifinals, where Nadal might be too good for him.

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