ATP Indian Wells Day 11: Semifinals Top Plays

João Mourato

Saturday, March 19, 2016 12:26 AM UTC

Saturday, Mar. 19, 2016 12:26 AM UTC

Join us and find out our two top betting selections for the ATP Indian Wells Semifinals that takes place this Saturday. We'll provide a detailed analysis, explaining why you should grab these two valuable tennis picks.

Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Rafael Nadal (4)
Novak Djokovic extended his winning streak in Indian Wells to 15 matches after his quarterfinals triumph over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Djokovic had a slow start on this event – losing the first set he played against the qualifier Bjorn Fratangelo – but managed to improve his level after that, not losing a single set in the following matches. Despite not producing his best tennis on this event so far, Novak showed why he’s the world best player for several years by raising his game on pressure moments – like it happened on his quarterfinals victory against Tsonga by 7 – 6 7 – 6.

We picked Rafael Nadal as one of our best plays for this Friday’s action in Indian Wells and the Spaniard matched the expectations with a straight sets victory versus Kei Nishikori. The victory over Alexander Zverev in the previous round was a massive boost to Nadal’s confidence, with the Spaniard playing at a superb level against Nishikori. The Spaniard ended the match with great numbers, placing 89% first serve in and saving 6 of 8 break points.

These two players feature one of the biggest rivalry on tennis history, with Djokovic leading on h2h by 24 – 23; however, the Serbian has the upper hand in recent meetings with 9 victories on their last 10 encounters.

Despite Djokovic’s recent dominance over Nadal, the Spaniard should give a good fight on this match. Nadal played at a terrific level against Nishikori and playing on one of his favorite courts, this is a great opportunity for him to create some problems to the Serbian. Having said that, we advise to take advantage of Nadal’s tennis odds value by placing a bet on his spread.

Free Tennis Pick: Rafael Nadal +4.5 (-102)
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle


David Goffin (15) vs. Milos Raonic (12)
As we predicted in our Indian Wells Day 9 Analysis, Milos Raonic’s firepower was just too much for Gael Monfils, with the Canadian covering his set handicap. Despite facing one of the best defenders on tour, Milos ended the match with impressive numbers – 24 winners / 13 unforced errors and creating 13 break point chances in 10 return games. Raonic has been incredibly consistent on his serve this week, holding 94.3% of his service games and winning an average of 78.4% and 65.7% on his first and second serve, respectively.

David Goffin is for the first time on a Masters 1000 semifinals, with his best previous result achieved in Rome last year, when he reached the quarterfinals. Even though the higher bounce conditions in Indian Wells aren’t the best for Goffin’s supper aggressive baseline game, the Belgian is having an amazing week, defeating on the previous rounds high quality players such as Stan Wawrinka and Marin Cilic. David is known for his returning skills and that has been one of the keys for his success on this event, winning 37.04% of his return games against Stan and Cilic.

This will be the third career meeting between these two players, with each player winning one of the previous three contests. The last one was played in Basel 2014 on Indoor Hard Court, with Goffin emerging victorious by 6 – 7 6 – 3 6 – 4.

Raonic is the undeniable favorite for this contest; however, David has always been a tough match-up for the Canadian. With nothing to lose on this match, Goffin might become even more dangerous and for those reasons, we believe this should be a closer contest than the odds indicate. With this in mind, we suggest adding the Over to your tennis picks.

Free Tennis Pick: Over 22.5 (-111)
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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