ATP French Open Betting Analysis & Free Winning Tennis Picks

João Mourato

Sunday, May 22, 2016 1:00 PM UTC

Sunday, May. 22, 2016 1:00 PM UTC

Join us on our analysis of the ATP French Open main draw. We'll analyze the main contenders, the player to keep an eye and also the highest value tennis bets for this event.

Top Half of the Draw
After a disappointing loss last year at the final against Stan Wawrinka, Novak Djokovic is once again looking for his first career trophy in Roland Garros. Despite losing his previous match in Rome against Andy Murray, it has been a very good season for the Serbian so far, winning the Australian Open and three Masters 1000 titles. Looking at Djokovic’s draw, the Serbian shouldn’t experience any kind of problems until the semifinals. One of the keys to be successful on a Grand Slam is to reach the latter stages of the competition in good shape and Novak has a great opportunity here, where he might face on the previous rounds Yen-Hsun Lu, Steve Darcis, Federico Delbonis, Roberto Bautista Agut and David Ferrer. Neither of them has the game to defeat Djokovic and it won’t be surprising to see the world no.1 reaching the semifinals without dropping a single set.

The nine-time Roland Garros champion, Rafael Nadal, returns to his favorite tournament. Nadal arrives to this event after a good preparation on clay, winning the titles in Monte Carlo and Barcelona and losing only in Madrid and Rome to Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic, respectively. Nadal’s first test might occur on the third round against Fabio Fognini yet, the Italian is an extremely inconsistent player and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him losing before that stage but if he reaches the third round, it won’t be an easy match for Rafael. On the following round, Nadal will have a huge test against Dominic Thiem. The Austrian is playing at a superb level and has weapons to bother Nadal, as he did earlier this year when he defeated the Spaniard in Buenos Aires. If Nadal overcomes that difficult challenge against Thiem he should reach the semifinals, since his task in the quarterfinals won’t be that hard because the toughest player that he can face, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, is far from his best level.

As it happened last year, Djokovic and Nadal might face once again at the semifinals. It should be a high quality match like the one they featured a couple weeks ago in Rome; however, the Serbian should prevail once again. Djokovic won 11 of their last 12 matches and reaching this match fresher than his opponent should be crucial for Novak’s success. However, is very hard for us to find value on Djokovic with such low tennis odds -125 on bet365. On the other hand, Nadal price seems quite interesting at +500 on William Hill and even though his difficult draw, is hard to skip Nadal at such high price to win Roland Garros.


Bottom Half Of The Draw
Looking now to the bottom half of the draw, Andy Murray is the highest ranked player on it. The world no.2 reach this event extremely motivated after winning the title in Rome. Murray shouldn’t experience many problems on the first rounds, where he might face two big servers – Ivo Karlovic and John Isner – or the talented Benoit Paire. Things will get tougher in the quarterfinals where Andy might face Kei Nishikori. The two have featured some remarkable battles but as it happened in 6 of their previous 7 meetings, Murray should emerge victorious and book a place in the semifinals.

The defending champion, Stan Wawrinka, is also on the bottom half of the draw. Stan reach this event after a terrific performance in Geneva, where he won his first career title on his home country. Stan has a very good draw to reach the semifinals, with Milos Raonic as the toughest player that he can face until that stage. The Canadian defeated Wawrinka earlier this year at the Australian Open but on clay the Suisse should be too good for Milos.

Murray and Wawrinka already featured some remarkable battles in the past and even though Murray’s 8 – 7 lead on h2h, it was Stan who won the previous three matches. We believe that one of these two will reach the final and for that reason, we suggest a split between the following two bets: Murray to reach the final at +110 on bet365 and Wawrinka to reach the final at +300 on bet365.


Player To Keep An Eye On
As we mentioned earlier, Dominic Thiem should face Rafael Nadal in the 4th round and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him defeating the Spaniard. Dominic reaches this event after winning his second consecutive title in Nice and he shouldn’t experience many problems until the contest against Nadal – the toughest player that he can face is Anderson, who won their previous three meetings but the South-African is not at his best level. Having said that, we believe there is value on Thiem’s price to win his quarter at +650 on bet365 and for that reason, we suggest adding this bet to your tennis picks.

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