ATP Estoril & Munich Semifinals Best Value Tennis Picks

João Mourato

Saturday, April 30, 2016 1:16 PM GMT

Join us while we analyze the ATP Estoril & Munich Semifinals. Find out our two top betting picks for this events and why should you play these two valuable tennis bets.

Alexander Zverev (8) vs Dominic Thiem (3)
In our tournament analysis, we picked Dominic Thiem as the main favorite to win the title and the Austrian matched the expectations so far by reaching the semifinals. Even though Dominic hasn’t played his best tennis so far on this event, he always found a way to emerge victorious on his two previous matches against Santiago Giraldo and Ivan Dodig. Thiem will be looking to extend his brilliant record on clay, with the Austrian winning 37 of the last 50 matches he played on this surface.

Alexander Zverev reach this stage of the competition after a remarkable victory against the 1st seed, David Goffin. Zverev had to work very hard on his first match against Malek Jaziri, with the German recovering from a set down on a match that required two days to be solved due to rain and snow delays. Despite being only 19 years old, Zverev is already a remarkable competitor and it shouldn’t take much before he enters the top 20 and even top 10. This is Alexander’s third career appearance on the semifinals of an ATP event and the German will be looking for his first career final.

This will be the first career meeting between two of the most promising players on tour.

The courts in Munich are quite fast and the ball doesn’t bounce as higher as it does on other clay courts, which makes it harder for Thiem to take advantage of his kick serve and top spin groundstrokes. We believe that Dominic should emerge victorious at the end but this won’t be such an easy as the tennis odds suggest and for that reason, our advice here is to place a wager on the Over.

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Free Tennis Pick: Over 22 (-101)
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

 

Nicolas Almagro vs Nick Kyrgios (2)
In the previous round, we picked Nick Kyrgios to cover his set handicap against Borna Coric and the Australian proved to be a valuable investment, dismissing his opponent by 6 – 4 6 – 4. Kyrgios is playing with a great mindset this week and his service was impressive against Coric, not facing a single break point and firing an average of 1.00 ace per service game. Nick is our favorite to grab the trophy and his odds for the title already dropped from 3.50 to 2.00.

Nicolas Almagro is trying to return to his best level after several problems in recent months. Even though Nicolas is able to produce an outstanding level of tennis, he’s still struggling to keep a consistent level. On his quarterfinals match against Leonardo Mayer, Almagro completely collapsed when serving for the match, giving the break to Mayer on a crucial moment. After that, the Spaniard lost control of the match and found himself 1 – 4 down on 2nd set tie break; however, Mayer couldn’t keep the lead with too many unforced errors and a fatal double fault at 4 – 4 on the tie break.

These two players will face for the first time, with Kyrgios trying to reach his second consecutive final in Estoril while Almagro tries to achieve his first career final on this event.

Both players have been serving at great level and it won’t be easy for any of them to be broken. However, Kyrgios is placing a much higher % of first serve this week with an average of 70.7% first serve in, while Almagro is only placing 52.4%. Adding to this and as we mentioned, Nicolas is too unreliable on pressure situations. With this in mind, we’ll add once again Kyrgios set handicap to our tennis picks

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Free Tennis Pick: Nick Kyrgios -1.5 Set Handicap (+105)
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline