ATP Doha Quarterfinals Top Tennis Pick: Andrey Kuznetsov vs. Rafael Nadal

João Mourato

Thursday, January 7, 2016 12:16 AM GMT

Thursday, Jan. 7, 2016 12:16 AM GMT

Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will be on action this Thursday for ATP Doha quartefinals. Join us while we analyze Nadal's match and provide the highest value tennis betting picks for that match.

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Tennis Picks: Andrey Kuznetsov +6.0 (-118) & Over 18.5 (-115).

Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

 

After a big upset on first round with Illya Marchenko surprising David Ferrer, the three highest seeded – Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Tomas Berdych – triumphed in straight sets to book a place on quarterfinals.

 

Andrey Kuznetsov vs Rafael Nadal (2)
The first round was a good test for Rafael Nadal, the Spaniard lost the first set against his fellow countryman Pablo Carreno Busta, but managed to comeback from set down to win by 6 – 7 6 – 3 6 – 1. Nadal kept the good level on his second match against Robin Haase, dismissing the Dutch in two easy sets. Despite losing that first set against Carreno Busta, Rafael has been extremely solid on his serve with 73% first serve in and winning 95.65% of service games. From the baseline, the Spaniard has also been able to produce consistent depth with his forehand, however that shot always experienced problems against hard hitters. On the first round that was clear, with Carreno Busta exploring Nadal’s forehand with blistering crossed backhands, however the world no. 67 wasn’t able to maintain the required consistency to defeat a player like Nadal.

Andrey Kuznetsov is one of many promising Russian players with tremendous ball striking skills. Players like Kuznetsov, Andrey Rublev or Evgeny Donskoy can play at a frenetic pace with their aggressive groundstrokes, but cannot produce consistent tennis. Kuznestov will try to reach his first career semifinals, after losing on all his five previous appearances on ATP quarterfinals. The Russian hasn’t dropped a set this week, defeating the Wild Card Marsel Ilhan and Ricardas Berankis. This will be Kuznetsov’s 8th career match against a top 10 opponent, with the player from Tula winning one of those encounters in 2014 against David Ferrer. It’s also important to mention that Andrey won one set in three of his six losses against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Andy Murray and Milos Raonic.

This two players faced each other last year at French Open where Nadal destroyed Kuznetsov by 6 – 1 6 – 3 6 – 2.

Nadal is the undeniable favorite for this contest; however, Kuznetsov can be a very tough opponent to face. Andrey’s powerful groundstrokes can make damage on Nadal’s forehand, but the big question is for how long the Russian will be able to keep a consistent level. There are couple ways of extracting value on a heavy underdog like Kuznetsov on this match, we suggest splitting your stake into two bets: Game Handicap and Over. There are plenty of matches where an underdog collapses after surprising the heavy favorite on first set, in fact that happened in first round against Carreno Busta. For this match our advice is to add to your tennis picks the value on Kuznetsov Game Handicap and Over tennis odds, with 50% of your stake on each bet.

Tennis Picks: Andrey Kuznetsov +6.0 (-118) at Pinnacle & Over 18.5 (-115) at Pinnacle

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