ATP Doha Final Top Tennis Pick: Novak Djokovic vs. Rafael Nadal

João Mourato

Friday, January 8, 2016 9:56 PM GMT

Friday, Jan. 8, 2016 9:56 PM GMT

Join us while we analze ATP Doha final where Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will face each other for the 47th time. Find out our top tennis selection and the best bookmaker to place your bet.

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Tennis Pick: Rafael Nadal +5.0 (-139)

Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

 

It was hard to ask for a better start of year, with Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal facing each other at Doha’s final. Djokovic struggled to overcome Tomas Berdych as we predicted in our quarterfinals preview, on the other hand Nadal dismissed Illya Marchenko in a smoother way.

 

Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Rafael Nadal (2)
Novak Djokovic rarely plays lower ATP events and this is his first ATP 250 final since 2011, when he won the ATP Belgrade title. As we already mentioned in our tournament preview, Djokovic is not as sharp on lower ATP tournaments as he is on the biggest competitions. Despite not losing a single set this week, Novak had to work very hard in his last two contests against Leonardo Mayer and Tomas Berdych. The Serbian was break down in almost every set against Mayer and Berdych, but raised the level and showed why he’s the undeniable world no. 1.

This will be Rafael Nadal’s second career final at Doha, after winning the title two years ago. It has been a good week for Nadal, although facing some problems against Pablo Carreno Busta and Andrey Kuznetsov, the Spaniard always found a way to emerge victorious.  Nadal’s serve has been his biggest weapon this week, placing 70.2% first serve and winning 89.8% of service games.

This is one of the biggest rivalries of all time with these players meeting for the 47th time. The h2h shows how big this rivalry is, with 23 victories for each player, however Djokovic won 8 of last 9 contests.

Despite the recent dominance from Djokovic over Nadal, the Serbian is clearly overrated for this contest. Nadal has been serving at great level and won’t be easy for Djokovic to break him. When comparing the two players’ service records this week, we see that Nadal placed higher % of serve, fired more aces, committed less double faults and won more service games than Djokovic. Rafael’s forehand down the line is his biggest weapon and that shot has been extremely accurate this week. No doubts that Djokovic deserves to be the favorite, but as we mentioned, his tennis odds are too low and there is clear value on Nadal’s spread. For this final we advise to add Rafael’s game handicap to your tennis picks.

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