ATP Buenos Aires Betting Analysis, Main Favorites & Free Tennis Picks

João Mourato

Sunday, February 7, 2016 3:20 PM UTC

Sunday, Feb. 7, 2016 3:20 PM UTC

Join us in our ATP Buenos Aires analysis, where the world best clay courters will fight for the trophy. Find out who are the main contenders, the player to keep an eye on.

ATP Buenos Aires

The Argentina Open takes place in Buenos Aires and will be played on Clay


Main Contenders
After a surprising loss at the Australian Open first round against Fernando Verdasco, Rafael Nadal requested a wild card to defend his title in Buenos Aires. Despite the early loss in Melbourne, Nadal has been playing at very good level in recent months. The Spaniard loves to compete on clay and this is a great opportunity for him to grab his 68th career title. The highest ranked player on Nadal’s half of the draw is John Isner and his kick serve can be a dangerous weapon on clay, but the courts in Buenos Aires are quite slow and it’s unlikely to see him surprising Nadal. There are some other talented players that Nadal might face on his path to the final, such as Alexandr Dolgopolov or Dominic Thiem, but neither of them seem to have the consistency required to defeat Nadal on clay. At the final, Nadal should face his fellow countryman David Ferrer. David is always a tough player to face, but there isn’t much he can do against Rafa, especially on clay, with Nadal leading the h2h by 18 – 1 on this surface. With this in mind, we believe there is good value on Nadal’s tennis odds to win the tournament at 2.00 on bet365.

The three-time champion, David Ferrer, will be looking to extend his record in Buenos Aires, after winning this event on his last three appearances, with a 15 games winning streak. David played at very good level in Melbourne, losing only to Andy Murray on the quarterfinals. Ferrer is known for his tremendous consistency, with the Spaniard performing at his best on clay courts. It’s never easy to play the opening match on a competition, especially on a different surface, however David should have an easy debut against the wild card, Renzo Olivo. On the following two rounds, Ferrer might face two good clay courters: Pablo Cuevas and Fabio Fognini. Both are very dangerous opponents, but David’s consistency seem to be too much for them, with the Spaniard winning all the previous matches against Cuevas and Fognini. Ferrer is priced at 5.00 on bet365 to win the title and despite his good chances of reaching the final, it’s very unlikely for him to defeat Rafael Nadal at the final. As we mentioned, Rafael has a tremendous edge over Ferrer and for that reason, we suggest to bet on Ferrer and trade him before the final.


Player to keep an eye on
Dominic Thiem returns to his favorite surface, with the clay courts providing him the time he needs to prepare his powerful groundstrokes. Dominic had a terrific 2015 on this surface, winning three ATP titles. Thiem is on top half of the draw, where he might face Rafael Nadal on semifinals. It won’t be an easy start for Thiem against such a solid player as Pablo Carreno Busta, but the Austrian should overcome this opponent with his powerful groundstrokes. Dominic might face another Spaniard in the second round, Daniel Munoz De La Nava, and once again his baseline quality should be too much for his opponent to handle. On quarterfinals, Thiem can face the big server John Isner, but as we already mentioned, the conditions in Buenos Aires are not very fast and John will struggle to get many free points on serve. They have also played twice in the past, with Thiem winning their previous meeting on clay. Dominic’s run should end on semifinals against Rafael Nadal and with that in mind, we advise to add Thiem to your tennis picks in the first rounds and avoid betting on him in a possible semifinals clash against Nadal.

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