ATP Basel & Vienna Betting Analysis: Back Home Favorites for Glory

João Mourato

Wednesday, October 24, 2018 4:00 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 24, 2018 4:00 PM UTC

The last two of 13 ATP World Tour 500-level tournament take place this week in Basel and Vienna. Join us while we go through the best value bets for this week’s action at the Swiss Indoors Basel and Erste Bank Open.

ATP Basel – Defending Champion

Eight-time champion Roger Federer is making his 18th appearance in his home town of Basel. The 37-year-old started his title defense with a 6-2, 4-6, 6-4 victory against Filip Krajinovic to extend his winning run at the Swiss Indoors Basel to 16 matches. Federer has won three titles this season – Australian Open, Rotterdam, Stuttgart – but all of them in the first six months of the year. Nevertheless, playing in Basel brings the best out of Federer with the 20-time Grand Slam champion reaching the final in all his last 11 appearances in Basel.

Federer returns to action this Thursday against Jan-Lennard Struff. This will be the fourth official meeting between these two players with Federer yet to drop a set against the German. On the other hand, Struff only won 14.29% of the matches played throughout his career against Top 10 players. The sportsbooks are well aware of these stats with Federer as the undeniable favorite to win this match at -435 with 5Dimes.

Looking now at Roger’s draw in Basel, the defending champion appears to have a favorable path to reach another final. Federer is in the opposite half of the draw to former champion Marin Cilic and No.2 seed Alexander Zverev while Stan Wawrinka withdrew from the tournament due to a back injury. For that reason, our advice is to add Roger’s outright at +162 at William Hill to your betting picks as the best value bet for this event.

ATP Vienna – Player to Keep an Eye

Local hero Dominic Thiem continues his quest for a first Vienna title. Thiem will try to become the first Austrian player to lift the trophy at the Erste Bank Open since Jurgen Melzer in 2010. The world No.7, who is yet to advance past the quarterfinals in Vienna, started his week with a 7-5, 7-6(5) win over Ruben Bemelmans in one hour and 45 minutes. Thiem saved all three break points he faced and won 72% of his service points.

The top-seeded Austrian will have a difficult task in the second round of the Erste Bank Open against Sam Querrey. Known as one of the best servers on the ATP World Tour, Querrey fired 20 aces and lost just three of 45 first serve points to take down former champion Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the previous round. Despite Sam’s undeniable quality, Thiem is riding a seven-match winning streak this year in Indoor Hard Court and leads the H2H over Querrey 2-1. Adding to this, Dominic has the crowd support on his side to end a five-year drought and reach the quarterfinals for the first time since 2013. With this in mind, our suggestion is to add the Austrian’s -2.5 spread at -110 at Pinnacle. On the other hand, betting on Thiem to lift the trophy at +600 at Bet365 is also an interesting approach for this tournament.

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