ATP Australian Open Day 8: Main Favorite Spread Betting Analysis

João Mourato

Saturday, January 23, 2016 4:57 PM GMT

Saturday, Jan. 23, 2016 4:57 PM GMT

Find out our ATP Australian Open Day 8 main favorite spread betting analysis. We'll provide the highest value tennis bets and also the best books to place your tennis picks.

Andrey Kuznetsov vs Gael Monfils (23)
We mentioned in our Day 6 Main Favorite Spread Betting Analysis, that Gael Monfils seemed much more focused on his tennis, but his match against Stephane Robert was an authentic freak show. Gael won that match by 7 – 5 6 – 3 6 – 2, however was double break down in the first and second set, but once he decided to play at a decent level he was just too good for Stephane.  

The best of five sets matches suit Andrey Kuznetsov’s game style, with the Russian performing at his best on Grand Slam events. Kuznetsov is a tremendous ball striker and he has been impressive throughout this competition, losing only one set in the third round against Dudi Sela. Andrey’s main problem is to keep a consistent game level, but this week he’s been quite consistent, with an average of 12.8 winners / 9.6 unforced errors per set.

They faced each other twice last year, with Monfils winning both matches. The last they played was at Monte Carlo, where Gael emerged victorious by 4 – 6 6 – 3 6 – 4.

Is hard to predict which Monfils will show up on court, the one who defeated Nicolas Mahut with one of his most consistent performances ever, or the entertainer who had to recover twice from a double break down against a weaker opponent like Robert. Even if Gael performs at his best, it won’t be easy to defeat this opponent. The Russian loves the big stages and if we look at his six previous results against top 20 players on Grand Slams, only twice he was defeated in straight sets, with those results occurring against Novak Djokovic in Melbourne and Rafael Nadal at the French Open. This should be a very interesting contest and a 5th set might be needed to decide the winner, for that reason we suggest to avoid Gael’s spread at -5.5 (-101) on Pinnacle. On the other hand we advise to take the Over to your tennis picks for this match.

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Bernard Tomic (16) vs Andy Murray (2)
As we mentioned in our Day 6 Main Favorite Spread Analysis, Andy Murray’s spread against João Sousa was very well placed and he couldn’t cover that line. Andy lost his first set on this competition against Sousa, in a match where Sousa took advantage of Murray’s weak second serve, winning 55% of points on the world no.2 second serve. Andy has displayed a remarkable physical condition, but is always playing too defensive and that mindset makes him vulnerable to his opponents.

Bernard Tomic will be looking for his first Australian Open quarterfinals appearance, after losing on this stage in 2012 and 2015. Bernard had a good draw on this event, defeating so far Denis Istomin, Simone Bolelli and John Millman. We mentioned in our Day 6 Top Plays, that Tomic needed to win the match against Millman in straight sets – in order to ensure he would be at the best possible physical condition for a clash against Murray – and that’s exactly what he did, with a solid performance against his fellow countryman.

Murray leads on h2h by 3 – 0, with their most recent match at Davis Cup last year, where Andy won by 7 – 5 6 – 3 6 – 2.

This should be a closer contest than Murray’s tennis odds show, with Tomic being able to give a good fight to the British. Bernard knows that the key to create problems to Andy is to be aggressive from the baseline and serve well, because in longer rallies Murray will get the upper hand. The spread for this match is at -7.5 (+105) on Pinnacle and once again there is no value on his live. However, Tomic’s Set Handicap presents some value, with the Australian having good chances to take at least one set on this contest. 

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