ATP Australian Open Day 6: Main Favorite Spread Betting Analysis

João Mourato

Thursday, January 21, 2016 6:33 PM UTC

Thursday, Jan. 21, 2016 6:33 PM UTC

Find out our ATP Australian Open Day 6 main favorite betting analysis. We'll provide the highest value tennis bets and also the best books to place your tennis picks.


Andy Murray (2) vs. João Sousa (32)
With a remarkable performance, Andy Murray destroyed Sam Groth by 6 – 0 6 – 4 6 – 1. Andy was absolutely brilliant, allowing only 6 aces in 11 service games to Groth. Murray broke his opponent serve 7 times, finishing the match with 35 winners / 11 unforced errors and winning 67% of the points when Groth rushed into the net.

João Sousa is for the second consecutive year on Australian Open’s third round. The Portuguese is playing the best tennis of his career, defeating Santiago Giraldo for the first time on his career in the previous round. Sousa is a very aggressive player, always trying to control the points with the forehand. Sousa has also been serving at very good level this week, averaging 0.64 aces and winning 77.7% with his first serve.

Andy leads 6 – 0 on h2h, with two of those matches played at this event. Their last match was at Roland Garros in 2015, where Sousa won his first set against Murray. The world no.2 is the undeniable favorite and should get the job done in straight sets. The spread line seems very well placed at -9.5 (-110) on Pinnacle and is hard to find value on these tennis odds. Murray should win one set by big margin, one closer set and the other should decide this spread, but due to the lack of value we advise to avoid betting on it.

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Stan Wawrinka (4) vs. Lukas Rosol
Stan Wawrinka booked a place into Australian Open’s 3rd round for the 8th consecutive year after a solid performance against Radek Stepanek. Once again, the Suisse played his best tennis under pressure, saving 10 of 11 break points and finishing the match with 43 winners / 23 unforced errors.

For the first time on his career, Lukas Rosol will play the Australian Open third round. On the previous round, Rosol surprised the 25th seed, Jack Sock, defeating the American in straight sets. Rosol is known for his powerful groundstrokes and for being a very dangerous player due to his super offensive game style. The Czech was also very good under pressure, saving all 10 break points he faced and converting 1 on 2 chances.

This won’t be an easy match for Wawrinka, the Czech has nothing to lose on this match and that makes him even more dangerous. Stan leads 2 – 0 on h2h, with their most recent meeting at Geneva last season, where Wawrinka won 6 – 4 3 – 6 6 – 3. The spread is not very high for this match at -7.0 (+112) on Pinnacle, but is never easy to trust Stan to cover his handicaps on Grand Slams and against such a dangerous player we advise to skip it.

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Stephane Robert (q) vs. Gael Monfils (23)
Gael Monfils is a former top 10 and he said his goal is to return to that elite group, but for that, he needs to focus on his tennis. Gael is known for being an entertainer and for some lack of professionalism, but the French seems a different player this year. Gael made a terrific performance against Nicolas Mahut, defeating his fellow countryman by 7 – 5 6 – 4 6 – 1. Monfils was far from brilliant on his match, but was extremely solid with 50 winners / 10 unforced errors.

There seems to be something in Australian Open that makes Stephane Robert find his best tennis. After reaching the 4th round in 2014 as a qualifier, the French is already in the third round, after emerging once again from the qualifying. Robert had a very tough second round; surviving in a five sets battle against Rajeev Ram.

The match-up is very good for Gael here and he should get the job done without many problems. Robert is a solid baseline player, with good counter punching skills and his backhand as his best weapon, but there isn’t much he can do against Monfils. Gael should be just too strong from the baseline and we suggest to add his spread at -7.5 (-110) on Pinnacle to your tennis picks

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