ATP Australian Open Day 5: Main Favorite Spread Betting Analysis

João Mourato

Wednesday, January 20, 2016 4:05 PM GMT

Wednesday, Jan. 20, 2016 4:05 PM GMT

The third round is here, which means we’ll start to have contests between seeded players. Find out who are the main favorites to get in action this Friday on the Men's Draw.

Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Andreas Seppi (29)
The world no. 1 and defending champion, Novak Djokovic, continued his quest for another trophy in Melbourne with a straight sets victory over Quentin Halys. The Serbian had a tremendous start, winning the first two sets by 6 – 1 6 – 2, but struggled to keep the same consistency on the third and needed a tie break to get the job done.

Andreas Seppi will be looking for another monumental upset at the Australian Open third round, after surprising last season Roger Federer at this stage of the competition. Seppi is a great baseline player, with his forehand as his best weapon. The Italian loves to play on the big stages and he usually produces his best tennis on these events.

Despite leading 12 – 0 on h2h, Seppi has never been an easy opponent for Djokovic on Grand Slams. In 2012 the Serbian needed to comeback from two sets down to get the victory and last year at the US Open he only won in three very close sets by 6 – 3 7 – 5 7 – 5. The spread for Djokovic on this match is at -9.5 (-103) on Pinnacle and he might cover it, however it's never easy for Novak to face Seppi and is hard to find value on these tennis odds.

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Roger Federer (3) vs. Grigor Dimitrov (27)
With one of his best performances ever on serve, Roger Federer overcame Alexandr Dolgopolov in straight sets. The Suisse ended the match with 25 aces, firing an impressive average of 1.79 aces per game. Roger’s health issues that affected him in Brisbane are already in the past, with the four-time Australian Open champion playing some remarkable tennis.

Grigor Dimitrov keep struggling to live up to the expectations, after losing Sydney’s final where he had match point, the Bulgarian was far from impressive on his first two matches against Paolo Lorenzi and Marco Trungelliti. Grigor needed four sets to overcome Trungelliti, ending that match with 43 winners / 40 unforced errors.

Federer leads 4 – 0 on h2h, losing just one set this year at Brisbane; however, Roger was struggling with an illness on that match. If Dimitrov plays his best tennis he’s always a tough opponent, but he’s far from his best and clearly struggling with his confidence. Federer served at an outstanding level and it will be hard for Grigor to break him. The spread is at -6.5 (-109) on Pinnacle and we suggest to add this line to your tennis picks

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Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (26) vs. Kei Nishikori (7)
As we predicted in our Day 3 Main Favorite Spread Analysis, Kei Nishikori had a close contest against Austin Krajicek, with the Japanese emerging victorious by 6 – 3 7 – 6 6 – 3. Kei was much more erratic when compared to the first match, ending his contest against Krajicek with 40 winners / 31 unforced errors.

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez had to recover from a set down to defeat Daniel Brands. The Spaniard likes the conditions in Melbourne, where he has time to control the rallies with his aggressive forehand. Despite facing a very powerful opponent, Guillermo found a way to turn the match against a dangerous opponent.

They played two times with Nishikori winning both in straight sets. This should be a very good contest, Garcia-Lopez usually creates some problems to the top players. Last year, the Spaniard only lost to Stan Wawrinka in five close sets. The spread is at -7.5 (+102) on Pinnacle and won’t be easy for Kei to cover it. The Japanese will face an extraordinary competitor, with terrific groundstrokes and for that reason it’s better to avoid this bet.

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