ATP Australian Open Day 4: Main Favorite Spread Betting Analysis

João Mourato

Tuesday, January 19, 2016 7:22 PM GMT

After Rafael Nadal’s surprising defeat, the top contenders on bottom half of the draw will try to avoid another upset. Find out who they play against and if they can cover their betting spread.

Sam Groth vs Andy Murray (2)
With a very solid performance, Andy Murray dismissed Alexander Zverev by 6 – 1 6 – 2 6 – 3. We expected a closer scoreboard on this match, however Andy was just too solid, returning almost everything. Murray’s defensive skills are even more effective on this courts, with the world no.2 covering the court very well.

After reaching the Australian Open third round last season, Sam Groth started his campaign this year with a surprising victory against Adrian Mannarino. Groth’s serve is his biggest weapon, with the Australian ending the first round with 27 aces. However, the Australian’s baseline game is very weak and for that reason he’s always looking for an opportunity to rush to the net. In the match against Mannarino, Groth played 67 points at the net, but only won 52% of those points.

Murray loves to play against big servers, he knows how to return to their serve with his defensive skills being the key for that. Groth won’t have a single chance on baseline rallies and at the net he’ll also be in troubles. The Australian only won 52% of points at the net against Mannarino and this time things will be much tougher against Murray. The spread is at -8.5 (+107) on Pinnacle and we suggest to add it to your tennis picks.

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Radek Stepanek vs Stan Wawrinka (4)
Unfortunately, Dmitry Tursunov retired in the third set when the Over was virtually in the pocket. Once again, Stan Wawrinka was far from impressive, but always finding his best tennis in the decisive points. After Rafael Nadal’s surprising defeat, the Suisse has now an even better opportunity to go far on this event.

The 37 years old veteran and former world no.8, Radek Stepanek, booked a place into the second round after a four sets victory against Tatsuma Ito. Due to several physical problems, Radek is currently outside top 150 and for that reason he had to play the qualifying. The Czech played his usual offensive tennis, winning 43 of his 58 approaches to the net.

Despite leading 5 – 2 on h2h, Stepanek is far from the player he was while Wawrinka is currently at a much better shape. The Suisse won the previous two matches, but this won’t be an easy contest for Stan. This time his spread is quite lower at -7.5 (+106) on Pinnacle and he might cover it, but due to her usual lack of effort there is no value on those tennis odds. We picked the Over as a better bet in his previous match, but the line is much more accurate this time and we also suggest to avoid it.

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Milos Raonic (13) vs Tommy Robredo
After winning ATP Brisbane, Milos Raonic kept the good level with a solid victory over Lucas Pouille. The Canadian didn’t face a single break point, ending the match with great numbers on serve: 64% first serve in; 89% 1st serve points won; 68% 2nd serve points won. Raonic has also been playing with a more offensive mindset, rushing very often into the net.

Tommy Robredo seems in clear decline and was very close from elimination against Malek Jaziri. Robredo emerged victorious by 7 – 5 3 – 6 4 – 6 7 – 6 8 – 6, in a match where Jaziri served for the match and had also one match point. The Spaniard player very poor under pressure, converting only 5 of 30 break points.

Raonic is a terrible match-up for Robredo, with the Canadian leading 5 – 0 on h2h. The Spaniard is a very defensive player, standing couple of meters behind the baseline and always trying to hit his forehand. However, Tommy’s lack of depth on the backhand side is the reason for Raonic’s success against him. The Canadian takes advantage of those shots to attack with his forehand and close the point. The spread on Raonic is at -8.0 (+104) on Pinnacle, it may seem a large line for a player like Raonic to cover, but against this opponent he should get it done.

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