ATP Australian Open Day 3: Main Favorite Spread Betting Analysis

João Mourato

Monday, January 18, 2016 6:50 PM GMT

The main contenders on the top half of the draw return this Wednesday. Join us as we analyze their spread and provide the highest value tennis picks for the ATP Australian Open Day 3.

Novak Djokovic (1) vs Quentin Halys (WC)
We expected a tough first match for Novak Djokovic, and the Serbian had to work very hard to overcome Hyeon Chung. Both played at great level, with outrageous baseline rallies, but Novak was just too good at the end, finishing the match with 89% points won on first serve, 40 winners and 27 unforced errors.

Huge upset from the French Wild Card, Quentin Halys, defeating Ivan Dodig in four sets. Quentin is a very aggressive young player, always trying to attack with his forehand. Halys ended his match with very positive stats, firing 68 winners / 48 unforced errors and breaking his opponent seven times.

This won’t be Quentin’s debut against one of the best in the world on a big stage, last year he played against Rafael Nadal at Roland Garros, losing by 3 – 6 3 – 6 4 – 6. However, things will be much tougher for him this time. Djokovic is playing at an absurd level and he should be just too solid for the French player. The spread is at -12.0 (+100) on Pinnacle and this time we believe this is a value bet to add to your tennis picks.

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Roger Federer (3) vs Alexandr Dolgopolov
Roger Federer was just too good for Nikoloz Basilashvili, crushing his opponent by 6 – 2 6 – 1 6 – 2. As we mentioned in our Day 1 Main Favorite Spread Analysis, Federer’s slice was one of the keys for his easy victory, cutting Basilashvili’s pace on baseline rallies. Roger ended the match with good numbers, 31 winners / 20 unforced errors, while Nikoloz just got 9 winners and 29 unforced errors.

The 2011 Australian Open quarterfinalist, Alexandr Dolgopolov, started his campaign with a four sets victory over Ricardas Berankis. Dolgopolov loves to play against the top players, with couple of good victories in recent years against players like Rafael Nadal, Stan Wawrinka and David Ferrer.

They played at Indian Wells in 2014, with Federer dismissing Dolgopolov by 6 – 3 6 – 1. The Ukrainian is known for his unorthodox game style and irregularity, but he can create some problems to Roger here. The spread for this match is at -8.0 (+102) on Pinnacle and even if Federer loses a set, wouldn’t be surprising to see him covering this line. Dolgopolov can play at an outstanding level, and despite struggling to keep that level for a long time, we suggest to avoid betting on Federer spread tennis odds. On the other hand, if Dolgopolov shows up at good level the Over should be a winning pick.

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Austin Krajicek vs Kei Nishikori (7)
Kei Nishikori has always a very strong support on the Grand Slam of Asia/Pacific and he started his campaign with an impressive performance against Philipp Kohlschreiber, not facing a single break point. Kei usually struggles to keep a consistent level, but he was extremely solid on his debut, ending the match with 35 winners / 21 unforced errors.

Despite playing his first Australian Open main draw, Austin Krajicek dismissed the qualifier Di Wu in three easy sets. Krajicek has a good serve and is also a very competitive player from the baseline, always trying to hit the ball extremely early, especially with the backhand.

They played last year at Memphis, with Nishikori fighting from a break down to overcome the American. Kei showed his usual lack of consistency on this contest, while Krajicek played the match of his life. The spread is at -9.0 (-106) on Pinnacle and we advise to avoid betting on this handicap. As we mentioned, Kei is known for his inconsistency and after such a solid performance against Kohlschreiber, is very likely to see him struggling this time. On the other hand, Krajicek is a great competitor and should keep the scoreboard pretty close. 

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