ATP Australian Open Day 1: Main Favorite Spread Analysis

João Mourato

Saturday, January 16, 2016 7:28 PM GMT

Saturday, Jan. 16, 2016 7:28 PM GMT

Join us while we analyze the main favorite spreads for the ATP Australian Open Day 1. Find out who are the top players to get in action and if there is any value to bet on their game handicap.

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Novak Djokovic (1) vs Hyeon Chung
The main favorite and our selection to win the title, Novak Djokovic, will start his campaign against the 19 years old from South Korea, Hyeon Chung.

Chung is a very promising player, with terrific groundstrokes and baseline consistency. This will be Hyeon’s fourth career contest against a top 10 opponent, with one of those matches played at US Open last year – lost 6 – 7 6 – 7 6 – 7 to Stan Wawrinka.

In the past three years, Djokovic has been far from impressive on his debut at Australian Open. In 2013 defeated Paul-Henri Mathieu 6 – 2 6 – 4 7 – 5; in 2014 defeated Lukas Lacko 6 – 3 7 – 6 6 – 1; in 2015 defeated Aljaz Bedene 6 – 3 6 – 2 6 – 4.

The spread line for Djokovic on this match seems too high at -11.0 (+112) on Pinnacle. One of Chung’s main quality is his ability to keep a very consistent game level and he should give a good fight to the world no.1. Adding to this, this is the Asia-Pacific Grand Slam and Hyeon must also have a strong support from the crowd, which will help him maintaining a high level of tennis during the whole match. We advise to avoid betting on Djokovic spread on this match, the Serbian will face a very tough opponent and Chung should give a very good fight.

 

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Roger Federer (3) vs Nikoloz Basilashvili
The four-time Australian Open champion, Roger Federer, will face Nikoloz Basilashvili, from Georgia, on the first round.

This will be Nikoloz first career appearance at Australian Open main draw. The Georgian player did an outstanding run at Wimbledon last year, reaching the third round. Basilashvili is a tremendous ball striker, hitting extremely powerful groundstrokes, but he’s also far from consistent. Since that outstanding run at Wimbledon, the world no. 117 hasn’t been able to keep the same level, starting the year with a loss at Canberra Challenger against a player outside top 500.

Federer is always one of the main contenders for the title; however, it’s currently very hard for him to compete with the best on best of five matches, especially on slow courts like the ones in Melbourne. Roger knows that he needs to win the first matches as fast as possible, in order to spend the less time possible on court.

Roger loves to play against this hard hitters, he knows how to cut the pace of the rallies with his backhand slice. Basilashvili might start the match with some good shots, but as time goes by it will be very hard for him to keep a consistent level. Federer spread is at -10.0 (-111) on Pinnacle, we believe he can cover this spread but we suggest waiting for the first games of the match, where you might be able to get a lower line, adding this way a higher value tennis pick.

 

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Yuki Bhambri vs Tomas Berdych (6)
The two-time Australian Open semifinalist, Tomas Berdych, will make his debut against the Indian Yuki Bhambri.

This will Bhambri’s second career match at a Grand Slam main draw, the first time that he doesn’t has to play the qualifying. Yuki can produce outstanding groundstrokes and he was a very tough opponent to Andy Murray last year on first round, losing by 3 – 6 4 – 6 6 – 7.

Despite having a tremendous forehand and a great record on this event, Berdych hasn’t been very impressive in his debuts since 2012. The Czech is known for his inconsistency and in the previous four editions; the highest spread he was able to cover was -7.5.

Bhambri should be able to give a good fight; he can hit superb groundstrokes and he should perform at great level in a match with no pressure, like this one. Tomas spread is extremely high at -10.5 (-101) on Pinnacle and due to the lack of value on this tennis odds, we strongly advise to avoid betting on that line. 

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