After several upsets in the first two rounds, it’s time to take a look to the main contenders’ chances and also to other valuable players to keep an eye on this Australian Open.
Defending Champion Out
Against all expectations, Denis Istomin featured one of the biggest upsets in the history of the sport after defeating Novak Djokovic. The defending champion couldn’t find an answer to Istomin’s firepower with the Uzbek emerging victorious by 7 – 6 5 – 7 2 – 6 7 – 6 6 – 4 after almost five hours on court.
With Djokovic’s defeat, Andy Murray is now the undeniable favorite to lift the trophy in Melbourne. After losing already five finals on this event, Murray has a golden opportunity to break that negative streak and claim his first Australian Open title. However, there are still some concerns about Andy’s physical condition. The world no.1 rolled his ankle on a nasty fall in the previous round against Andrey Rublev.
Even though Murray said that it was ok after the match, our suggestion is for you to wait for his match against Sam Querrey before placing any bet. Andy’s outright is currently at -110 at William Hill and we don’t expect a big drop if he beats Querrey in the 3rd round. With this in mind, keep an eye on Murray’s match this Friday in Melbourne and if he shows up without any limitation, then he’s the player to take to win the title.
Bottom Half of the Draw
Besides Murray, the players from the bottom half of the draw also benefit from Djokovic’s defeat. Looking now to the market “Reach the Final”, Milos Raonic and Rafael Nadal are the main favorites on this side of the draw. Raonic is currently at +225 while Nadal’s price is slightly higher at +300, both at Bet365. Adding to these two, Grigor Dimitrov is also a big threat with the Brisbane International champion priced at +550 to reach the final.
When looking to these three players’ draw, Raonic seems to be the one with the best draw to make it into the later stages. The Canadian started his campaign in Melbourne with two outstanding performances against Dustin Brown and Gilles Muller. Besides not losing a single set, Raonic also saved all the 7 break points he faced with an impressive average of 1.34 aces per service game. Taking a look now to his opponents in the following two rounds, Milos shouldn't experience many problems against Gilles Simon and Roberto Bautista Agut. Even though these two players are great competitors, the Canadian clearly hold the edge with a 3 - 1 lead on the h2h against Simon and a 4 - 0 against Agut.
Since we expect Milos to make it at least until the quarter-finals - where he should be the favorite against Nadal or any other player - there is another interesting market to keep an eye. The "3rd Quarter Winner” allows us to place a bet on Raonic to reach the semi-finals and is currently available at +175 at Coral, which is an extremely interesting price.
Having said that, our suggestion is for you to take advantage of this betting odds by adding Raonic to win the 3rd quarter to your betting picks. If you don't want to take many risks, you can also secure some profit in any scenario before a possible clash against Nadal in the quarter-finals.