Hurkacz did indeed defeat Federer and not only that, he became the first man in 13 years to win a set 6-0 against the Swiss maestro. Not the way Federer would have wanted to end his fortnight at Wimbledon, and it was clear that the physical toll of the event caught up with him. Maybe age is finally catching up with him – it surely has to eventually.
On the women’s side, we had two high-quality matches and we look set for a treat on Saturday. The world’s number one Ash Barty takes on Karolina Pliskova with both bidding to win their first Wimbledon title. Will the top seed get the job done or are we in for an upset? Join me as I analyze day 13 at Wimbledon and offer my best value picks and predictions for Sportsbook Review!
Karolina Pliskova vs. Ashleigh Barty
Saturday, July 10, 2021 – 09:00 AM EDT at the All England Club
Two players in impeccable form this fortnight take the stage on the penultimate day of Wimbledon and I think we have to side with this being a competitive match. Both have looked focused and, especially on serve, their level has been impressively consistent even under pressure so I like over 21.5 games at -120 (1.83) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review).
They’ve held 83% and 93% respectively this week with nearly identical break/hold percentages of 127.8% and 128.4%. Pliskova has been broken just five times across her six matches which would be impressive on the men’s tour let alone the women’s.
It’s a classic contrast of styles, with the big hitting, power orientated play of Pliskova contrasted against the variety and adaptability of Barty. If Pliskova can serve perfectly, she may just blast her way to the trophy, but this will be her toughest test yet in a player who can ask all the right questions. I imagine the key to this match will be who can hold their nerve under pressure and execute most consistently.
Top sportsbooks saw last round how quickly Barty can adjust within a match, coming back from a break down against Kerber in set two to win the set on a tiebreak. She could easily have let the momentum shift away but instead, she quickly changed tact and put Kerber to the test.
Pliskova’s ability on serve is a level up from Kerber and, similarly to Pliskova, Barty would have to return impeccably to win comfortably based on their form this week. While she is tenacious and highly intelligent, able to work out her opponents over the best of three, she doesn’t have a game style that tends to dominate against the elite. Take it into consideration for your betting odds.
Only 15 of her last 50 as favourite against the top 20 have finished under the total games line, including just three of 17 going back to the start of 2020. This week four of her six matches have gone over the total games line.
Similarly, when priced up as underdog against the top 10, just 20 of Pliskova’s 49 matches have finished under the total line, including just one of her 10 since 2019. She has played just three matches as the underdog against the top 10 on grass and hasn’t yet lost under the total games line. Thankfully, for our best bet.
The H2H is promising with six of their seven matches covering the over line and seven of their 18 sets have gone past 5-5. Their last match on grass ended 7-6 7-6 and their most recent meeting was 2-6 6-1 7-5 on clay this year with Pliskova priced at +290 (3.9).
So long as Pliskova can maintain her impeccable serving this week I think she’s got chances and I can’t put anyone off Pliskova on the money line at +221 (3.21) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review), but regardless of who wins I would be very surprised to see a one sided match so I’ll stick with an over.
Free Tennis Pick: Over 21.5 games at -120 (1.83) with Bovada
*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.