Welcome! The semifinal stage is finished, and an unfortunate bagel cost us the over in Berrettini, whilst Djokovic managed to get 10% of a racquet on far too many Shapovalov serves.
The Sunday final will be contested by two of the top market favorites. Unsurprisingly, Novak Djokovic has made it back to defend his title, whilst Matteo Berrettini became the first Italian to reach this stage in quite some time. Let´s dig into this matchup and round off the tournament with a winner!
Novak Djokovic(1) vs. Matteo Berrettini(7)
Sunday, July 11, 2021 – 09:00 AM EDT at Center Court
Path to the final:
Djokovic N. - Shapovalov D. SF 7-6(3), 7-5, 7-5
Djokovic N. - Fucsovics M. QF 6-3, 6-4, 6-4
Djokovic N. - Garin C. R16 6-2, 6-4, 6-2
Djokovic N. - Kudla D. 3R 6-4, 6-3, 7-6(7)
Djokovic N. - Anderson K. 2R 6-3, 6-3, 6-3
Djokovic N. - Draper J. 1R 4-6, 6-1, 6-2, 6-2
Once again, Novak Djokovic has reached a Major final, and is looking to equal both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal with 20 titles won. The pathway hasn´t been all that difficult, yet to face a single top 10 opponent, and after the first set that Jack Draper won, the world no. 1 hasn´t given up another.
In the semifinal against Denis Shapovalov, it was by no means a vintage performance from Novak. The 34-year old Serb double faulted three times in the first set alone, equaling his match total against Fucsovics. As a result, he was broken early, and an aggressive but consistent Shapovalov eventually served for the first set.
The Canadian missed an absolutely wide open sitter at *5-4, 30-30, however, which lead to a break back, and a poor tiebreak later it´s 1-0 Djokovic. Denis continued being the better player in the early stages of the second set, blowing *0-40 and *15-40 in back-to-back return games. He was later broken on the first break point faced and 0-2 down.
A more even third set in which both players had their chances again went Novak´s way in the key moments, with his aura and big point play proving decisive once more. Let’s dig into some Tennis betting!
Path to the final:
Berrettini M. - Hurkacz H. SF 6-3, 6-0, 6(3)-7, 6-4
Berrettini M. - Auger Aliassime F. QF 6-3, 5-7, 7-5, 6-3
Berrettini M. - Ivashka I. R16 6-4, 6-3, 6-1
Berrettini M. - Bedene A. 3R 6-4, 6-4, 6-4
Berrettini M. - Van De Zandschulp B. 2R 6-3, 6-4, 7-6(4)
Berrettini M. - Pella G. 1R 6-4, 3-6, 6-4, 6-0
What a fortnight it´s been for Matteo Berrettini, who made history as the first Italian to make a Wimbledon final in 45 years. The big serving 25-year old is still undefeated this grass season with an 11-0 record, and his sumptuous play continued in his semifinal.
Though Hurkacz was error prone and far from the man who demolished Federer on the day, the big serving Pole was still competitive at multiple stages of the match. After staving off three early break points, Hubert had one of his own in the 8 minute long sixth game, but Berrettini held on and later broke through to steal the first set 6-3.
An unraveling Pole was completely decimated in the second set that ended in a 23 minute bagel, but after an apparel change an inspired performance saw him halve the deficit to 2-1. Matteo would hammer down ace after ace, however, and got the decisive break early in the fourth set and rode it to the win.
This should be a cracking contest between the two best grass court players in the world right now, and Berrettini has shown in the past he has the weaponry to truly wound Djokovic. With the enormous serve and forehand, even the world no. 1 cannot always defend the ferocious hammer blows thrown at him.
Novak does have the uncanny ability to get a racquet on almost anything, however, and through extending rallies and locking Berrettini in his backhand corner he will have a vast advantage. We saw this matchup just one month ago at Roland-Garros, where the Italian lifted his game in front of a racuous crowd to force Djokovic to four tight sets.
On grass, there will be even less time for Djokovic to defend when finding himself on the back foot. The world no.1 and five-time champion is still a worthy -500 or steeper favorite on the moneyline at the top online sportsbooks, but the total market looks too low. At only 37.5 games, a Berrettini set should seal the over deal and a pair of tiebreaks could even give it a chance in three sets.
*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.