What a day at the French Open. Top seed Simona Halep was stunned by polish teenager and rising superstar Iga Świątek 6-1 6-2. Bertens was then ousted by another rising talent in Martina Trevisan, who has got better and better every match this week.
The men’s side was a little more routine overall, though Gaston pushed Thiem to 5 sets, playing some superb tennis. Sinner also upset Zverev in a relatively one sided 4 set match and he’s yet another Italian star in the making. Week 1 has come to a close at Roland Garros and it’s been quite a ride. Join me as I analyze day 9 in Paris and offer my best value picks and predictions for Sportsbook Review!
Marton Fucsovics vs. Andrey Rublev (13)
Monday, October 5, 2020 – 06:00 AM EDT – Paris
The second week starts with a tough looking card on the men’s side and I would be surprised if there were many upsets. Djokovic clearly enjoys conditions this week and should be too solid for Khachanov. Hopefully the Russian can give a decent showing of himself but it’s not a match I’m interest in from a betting perspective.
Tsitsipas has looked excellent this week after his wobble in round 1 and again I’d expect him to be a little too good for Dimitrov. The Bulgarian certainly may have his moments but at the prices I’ll pass.
The first match of interest to me features Carreno and Altmaier, with the young German looking very good this week. I have half a mind to back him at +350 (4.5) but my worry is the match up. While Struff and Berrettini are big hitters, Carreno is a baseline grinder and my sense is that he may to too solid for Altmaier. It also has to be noted that neither Struff or Berrettini played well, whereas Carreno has looked focused and clinical so far. He also has a great record in similar situations in slams, so it’s a no bet for me.
In the end, I’ve opted to go with Rublev to win 3-1 at +250 (3.5) with Intertops as I think the Russian will be pushed but a little too good on the day. Fucsovics is a dangerous player and in fine form this week, as he showed when defeating Medvedev priced +550 (6.5) in 4 sets in the first round. He has lost in straight sets just twice in 12 matches against the top 20 in slams and one of those was against Federer.
I was tempted to take a chance on the underdog, but Rublev really has not been good to take on recently. Remarkably, he has won 44 of his last 50 when priced up as the favourite for a 22.1% ROI and he has won 10 of the 11 in slams this year, losing to Zverev, then world number 7. He has played 20 matches as favourite in slams and in 7 of those he has won in 4 sets.
All in all, I would expect a tight match but all the trends and my intuition suggests that Rublev will come through, so I’ll take a chance on 3-1 at +250 (3.5) with Intertops.
Free Tennis Pick: Rublev 3-1 at +250 (3.5) with Intertops
Fiona Ferro vs. Sofia Kenin (4)
Monday, October 5, 2020 – 11:30 AM EDT – Paris
Unlike with the men, all of the underdogs on the women’s side look to have a chance on Monday. Zhang may be a little long at +300 (4) against Kvitova but both Badosa and Collins look about the right price. However, the women’s is somewhat more straightforward for me in that one match really stands out as being mispriced.
That match features Ferro and Kenin where I see some value in Ferro at +107 (2.07) with Heritage. We didn’t get much luck in taking on Kenin in the last round, but, as the point by point shows, the end score was very misleading and on another day that could easily have been much closer.
More importantly, Ferro is a big upgrade and one of the most formidable clay courters around at the minute. She comes into this on a 17 match win streak picking up the title in Palermo last out. She defeated Kontaveit in the final of that event at an identical price to this match, yet Kontaveit has significantly better clay pedigree than Kenin.
Ferro also defeated Rybakina 6-2 in the third priced +190 (2.9) in her second round match this week, another player whose clay ability is significantly better than Kenin. As in the Bara match, what Kenin has going for her is mainly just a higher overall ability and rank.
However, clay is a unique surface and all the stats suggest that Ferro should be slight favourite as opposed to Kenin. Firstly, on 2 year clay data, Ferro has won 78% of matches and has a combined service/return points won percentage of 103.6%. Kenin has won 57% of matches with a combined service/return points won percentage of 99.9%.
Ferro has been a money machine with a 41-9 record and 45.8% ROI on clay over the last 50 matches. In these tight matches she has done well winning 32 of her last 50 priced -200 (1.5) to -101 (1.99) for a 30.9% ROI including her last 10 in a row. She has won 5 of the last 6 against the top 50 on clay including both of her matches against the top 20 since 2019.
Kenin, by contrast, is underwhelming on clay. She has won 28 of her last 50 on the surface for a -1% ROI. Priced -200 (1.5) to -101 (1.99) she has a 14-19 record for a -18.4% ROI and has lost 12 of her last 14. Against the top 100 on clay she has a 5-11 record and -22.6% ROI.
Everything points to Ferro being value for this one and instinctively I would have had her at least marginal favourite. Ferro to win at +107 (2.07) with Heritage is my selection for this match.
Free Tennis Pick: Ferro ML at +107 (2.07) with Heritage