It was a somewhat flat day of men’s tennis on Saturday despite there being 3 underdog wins from 8 matches. Just 2 of the matches went over 3 sets and none to 5 sets with very little highly competitive tennis. We had a few more interesting matches on the women’s side.
Jabeur, Ferro, and Siegemund all won in 3 in what were, for the most part, competitive matches (though Siegemund and Ferro both won 6-0 in the third!) As we turn to the 4th round, can we find some value to close out week 1 in Roland Garros? Join me as I analyze day 8 in Paris and offer my best tennis picks and predictions for Sportsbook Review!
Lorenzo Sonego vs. Diego Schwartzman (12)
Sunday, October 4, 2020 – 08:15 AM EDT – Paris
The less said about Garin the better, who lost in a very tame 4 set defeat to Khachanov, though, to be fair, the Russian was better today than in recent matches. It’s often hard to tell the difference between a player who is unable to keep up with their opponent’s level and a player who is simply playing poorly on the day. It is often a bit of both, but it felt today like most of the matches were the latter.
It was another very solid display from Altmaier who has really excelled this tournament. He had a straight sets win over Struff last out which was the best win of his career but he’s backed it up with an even better win over world number 8 Matteo Berrettini, again in straight sets. The Italian was one of those who looked particularly flat today, but I would take nothing away from Altmaier who gave Berrettini absolutely nothing.
Moving on to the card for day 8 of the French Open and I have to say that there isn’t a whole lot which appeals. Nadal and Thiem will surely have too much for Korda and Gaston respectively, but they’re no price at all and, other than perhaps taking the under total games line, I can’t really see a decent angle in the side markets.
Zverev takes on Sinner in what is surely the match of the day, but the prices seem about right for that one too. If anything I’d probably bet on this going to 5 sets if you can get +250 (3.5), but I’m happy to leave that alone too.
The match of interest for me sees Schwartzman take on Sonego where I think the Italian may be a little out of his depth. He’s played well to reach this point with wins over Bublik and Fritz as underdog, but they are both serve orientated and Diego represents an entirely different challenge.
Schwartzman has broken the 3rd most on tour over the last 52 months behind Nadal and Djokovic. At 5’ 7” his game is the definition of return orientated and he can be incredibly hard to bit through, especially on this slow clay.
Sonego is more serve orientated, and while his baseline game is certainly solid, his defence in particular is lacking. Unless he can hit through Schwartzman, he will really struggle to find a good plan B. My expectation is that he may well have a few purple patches, but it’s highly likely that he’ll be found severely wanting overall.
The stats back me up. Schwartzman has played 29 matches priced below -200 (1.5) in grand slams and he has won 26 for a 12.1% ROI, covering the games handicap in 20 of those 26. Sonego has played 7 matches priced over +200 (3) in slams and has lost 6, with 5 of those 6 seeing his opponent cover the handicap.
In all matches priced over +200 (3), Sonego has a 9-34 record and has lost 16 in a row going back to 2018, with 11 of those 16 seeing the opponent cover the handicap (and most of the ones where the opponent didn’t cover the handicap were in quick conditions). He really struggles against the better players on tour, especially in slow conditions as his somewhat limited game is exposed.
Nothing stands out as much value on day 7, but I would expect Schwartzman to get the job done fairly easily so -6.5 games at -115 (1.87) with Bovada is my selection for this match.
Free Tennis Pick: Diego Schwartzman -6.5 games at -115 (1.87) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Martina Trevisan (Q) vs Kiki Bertens (5)
Sunday, October 4, 2020 – 05:00 AM EDT – Paris
We look set for some competitive tennis on day 8 and with the moneyline at +275 (3.75) with BetOnline, I’m going to take a chance that Trevisan can continue her dream run here in Paris. The Italian made the semi-finals at Roland Garros back in 2016 and she looks to playing a similar caliber of tennis this week.
Bertens is not an easy player to take on and certainly has the edge on serve and in the power department. Recent form and some longer term trends suggest that she isn’t unopposable though.
For starters, she came into this match on a 5 match losing streak and had retired in her last match just a few days before the start of the event. She then struggled physically in her match against Errani, having to be taken off in a wheelchair after somehow getting over the line. She then came out and won 6-2 6-2 against Siniakova, so it is hard to know how much to read into her form and fitness, but they are certainly question marks.
Secondly, Bertens has been a reasonable player to take on historically. Overall, when priced as favorite at main level, she has won 35 of her last 50 for a -1.6% ROI, so she’s basically been priced accurately on the whole. However, in slams she has a 21-17 record and -23.1% ROI when priced -500 (1.2) to -101 (1.99), which is really quite poor. Perhaps the pressure of the moment takes its toll.
Trevisan is the polar opposite to Bertens in many ways. She is left handed and stands 5’ 3”, compared to Bertens who is 6’ 0”. Her game is naturally more return orientated which suits this slow clay, especially as she can still generate a surprising amount of power. Her determination this week has been very impressive, coming back from a set down in her matches against both Gauff and Sakkari when priced +275 (3.75). She has got better and better over each match.
Trevisan has also been a money machine of late, with a 30.7% ROI over her last 50 matches. Priced +100 (2) to +500 (6) she has a 22-24 record for a 25.7% ROI and she has won 4 of 6 in 2020. The major question mark is whether she can get her first top 10 win, but at the prices I think we have to take the chance and she is my selection for day 8.