Mixed bag again yesterday with Podoroska winning comfortably, but Cecchinato foiling our chances at the double. The Over bet was looking in reasonable shape as Cecchinato went to serve out for Set 2, but he failed to do so and went on to win just 3 more games.
However, the big news on day 6 came when a 20-year-old home hope Hugo Gaston defeated Stan Wawrinka 6-0 in the fifth. A poor match from Stan without a doubt, but an excellent performance from Gaston, and a real crowd-pleaser as you can imagine. Join me as I analyze Day 7 in Paris and offer my best value picks and predictions for Sportsbook Review!
Cristian Garin (20) vs. Karen Khachanov (15)
Saturday, October 3, 2020 – 08:00 AM EDT at Stade Roland Garros, Paris
Turning to day 7, I feel Garin is being a little undervalued in his match against Khachanov. It would be surprising if this match were one-sided, but I can’t have them close to evens all things considered.
Cristian is simply the better player on clay regardless of how you evaluate this match. The only area where Khachanov is better is on the first serve, and that’s only because he’s 6’ 6” compared to Garin who is 6’ 1”. In terms of clay pedigree, Garin is well in front. He has a better defense and is able to mix up his play in a more versatile way when needed. Khachanov only has one game – big-hitting – and unless he is on top form, that ain’t gonna be easy to pull off against Garin.
Stats also agree. Firstly, Garin leads the 2 year combined service/return points won percentage by 2.6% (103.3 to 100.7). He has won 76% of his last 50 matches on clay (36.4% ROI) compared to 54% for Khachanov (-3.4% ROI). This match is almost even money. Garin has won 34 of his last 50 when priced in a similar range of -200 (1.5) to +100 (3) for a 31.1% ROI, including 6 of 8 this year. Khachanov has won just 24 of his last 50 at this price range for a -6.2% ROI, including just 1 of 4 this year.
They have both looked decent this week, but it is Garin who played significantly better in the warm-up event. He made the semi-final in Hamburg before losing 6-4 in the third to Tsitsipas. In contrast, Khachanov lost 6-1 6-2 against Lajovic in round 2 of Hamburg.
All in all, it’s one of those matches where everything points to one player so I’m happy to take a chance on Garin -1 games at -104 (1.96) with Betonline.
Free Tennis Pick: Cristian Garin -1 games at -104 (1.96) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Irina Maria Bara (Q) vs. Sofia Kenin (4)
Saturday, October 3, 2020 – 07:00 AM EDT at Stade Roland Garros, Paris
Bara has been very impressive this week, and once again, I think we have to side with the Romanian in this third-round match. Kenin doesn’t do her best work on clay, and the price seems to reflect her rank more than anything concrete.
Kenin is world number 6 while Bara is ranked 142 – that is about the only thing that suggests this price is accurate. At 5’ 4”, Bara is more return-oriented, and thus a more natural clay courter. Plus, she has more variation and adaptability in her clay game. Kenin often looks a little lost on a clay court. Clearly, she doesn’t enjoy playing on it nearly as much as she does on hard courts.
If we look at raw stats it paints a clear picture. Over the last 2 years on clay, Bara has a combined service/return points won is 102.7% compared to Kenin’s 98.8%. Bara has won 68% of her last 50 matches on clay (16.3% ROI), compared to 54% for Kenin (-4.2% ROI).
Kenin is a slight favorite for this match, and when priced in a similar range of -200 (1.5) to -101 (1.99) on clay, she has won 8 of 17 for a -18.5% ROI, including 0 of 1 this year. Bara has won 28 of her last 50 priced +100 (2) to +200 (3) on clay, for a 31.3% ROI, including 5 of 6 this year.
Leading up to the French, Bara made the final of an ITF on clay. While Kenin lost 6-0 6-0 in the first round of her only clay warm-up event. To be fair, she played an on fire Azarenka, but a double bagel is still a double bagel.
As with Garin, all things are pointing in the same direction. While I doubt that Kenin will lose comfortably, it seems obvious to me where the value lies in this match. I’ll happily take Bara ML at +201 (3.01) with Betonline.
Free Tennis Pick: Bara ML at +201 (3.01) with BetOnline