We didn’t have much luck with yesterday’s selections, as Tsitsipas played lights out tennis to spoil our handicap, and Van Uytvanck then retired down 6-1 4-0 voiding our moneyline bet on Bara. Frustrating, but that’s how it goes sometimes, and as the first week comes to a close, where does the value lie in round 3 at Roland Garros? Join me as I analyze day 6 in Paris and offer my best tennis picks and predictions for Sportsbook Review!
Alexander Zverev (6) vs. Marco Cecchinato
Friday, October 2, 2020 – 08:15 AM EDT – Paris
Zverev takes on the mercurial Italian Cecchinato in arguably the most eye-catching match on tomorrow’s card and I feel we have to take a chance on this being a long match. Zverev certainly has the quality to win this in 3, but he rarely shows the resolve to pull it off, especially against players like Cecchinato who can play superbly for periods of a match.
The simple fact remains than Zverev finds it remarkably hard to win easily in best of 5 grand slam tennis. He has all the weapons, but he just can’t maintain the intensity against decent opposition and so has a history of playing 4 or 5 set matches. He has won just 2 of his last 8 slam matches in straight sets and, more significantly, just 8 of his 26 matches priced -500 (1.2) to -101 (1.99) in slams have finished below the total games line. Last out he won 2-6 6-4 7-6 4-6 6-4 priced at -1000 (1.1) ATP tennis odds against Herbert and at the US Open a month ago he covered the total games line in 6 of his 7 matches.
Cecchinato is also a good candidate to take on this wager as the Italian is one of the more serve orientated clay specialists and has a tendency to go through hot and cold patches in a match. He has covered the total games line in 14 of his last 20 matches priced +100 (2) to +500 (6) on clay and has a superb 15-6 record at the French, most notably defeating Djokovic here in 2018 priced +1000 (11). I would be surprised if he can maintain his top level for long enough to win this one comfortably, but equally I would very much expect him to be competitive on decent form.
Over bets are rarely a great idea on clay, but I’m going to make an exception for this match which has 5 sets written all over it. If you can access that market and get +240 (3.5) or better on 5 sets, I would also take that option, but for this bet, I’ll stick with over 38 games at -113 (1.88) with BetOnline.
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova vs. Nadia Podoroska (Q)
Friday, October 2, 2020 – 06:20 AM EDT – Paris
The big upset of round 2 came at the hands of Schmiedlova as she dismantled Azarenka 6-2 6-2, but will she be able to back up that victory? It was obvious from Azarenka’s on-court comments in the first round that she disliked the conditions, and it was clear again in this very tame defeat. Not to take anything away from Schmiedlova, but it was a poor performance from Azarenka and hard to take much away from the match.
That aside, I think there are a lot of reasons to think we have another false favorite. Podoroska has just about everything going for her from raw stats to recent form and ROIs. For starters, her 2 year service/return points won percentage is significantly better at 104.1 to 100.8 (101.8 to 107.4 on clay). She also boasts better recent form, winning 41 of her last 50 matches and 10 in a row coming into this match, compared to 30 of the last 50 and 8 of the last 10 for Anna.
As is often the case, the key stat is the ROI, with one player clearly offering more value in similar situations. Podoroska has won 34 of her last 50 matches when priced -200 (1.5) to +100 (3) WTA tennis odds on clay for a 30.5% ROI – in other words, in these tight matches without a strong favorite, she has performed supremely well. Schmiedlova, too, has been a good player to back winning 28 of her last 50 matches when priced -200 (1.5) to +100 (3) on clay but the difference is that she has only a 6% ROI.
Nothing to be sniffed at, but it doesn’t compare to Nadia’s numbers and all things considered I would have had Podoroska between -150 (1.67) and -120 (1.83) so it’s an easy bet at even money.