One from two last out with Kontaveit and Golubic going to 3 sets to comfortably cover the over bet, but Bonzi failed to hold a first set lead and lost 7-5 6-3 6-4 in the end. It’s day 6 and as we approach the end of the first week we have 16 matches on the cards. Join me as I analyze day 6 in Paris and offer my best value picks and predictions for Sportsbook Review!
Laslo Djere vs. Alexander Zverev
Friday, June 04, 2021 – 07:15 AM EDT at Roland-Garros
Zverev has a habit of making life difficult for himself in slams and against a tricky opponent, in Laslo Djere I like over 33.5 games -115 (1.87) with BetOnline. I imagine the German will come through in the end, but Djere can play at a very high level and I doubt Zverev will have it all his own way.
Zverev has one of the most complete games on tour and if he played his best game for the whole match he would probably win handily. But his mental game can be lacking, and for some reason he tends to struggle to win easily in slams. He has covered the over line in 18 of his last 25 as a favorite in slams going back to 2019.
In the first round of this event he went two sets down to world number 152 Oscar Otte as a huge favourite in just one of many examples of his ability to go AWOL for periods in a match. He followed that up with a 7-6 6-3 7-6 win over world number 181 Roman Safiullin. Both covered the over line.
Djere is a big match player with a very high peak but who often lacks consistency. He’s got a remarkable 12-18 record priced over +200 (3) for a 83% ROI and just 4 of his last 17 matches going back to 2016 have finished under the total games line. At the French Open in 2019 he took Nishikori to 5 sets losing 8-6 in the fifth.
I would expect Djere to make a match of this, or Zverev to go AWOL, or both. All in all, I would say this line is a couple points too small so I like the over 33.5 games for my tennis pick.
Danielle Collins vs. Serena Williams
Friday, June 04, 2021 - 10:00 AM EDT at Roland-Garros
Serena has looked good overall so far this week but Collins will be her toughest challenge yet. I don’t much between them and I like the idea of betting on Collins to come through a long match.
Serena has found it difficult to win matches easily since Covid with just 7 of her 26 matches since August 2020 finishing under the total line. Her biggest strengths have always been her power both on serve and off the ground, but she’s increasingly showing a lack of consistency in these areas and limited movement and defensive capabilities.
She’s won just 4 of her last 7 as the favorite on clay going back to 2019 with losses priced 1.3, 1.4 and 1.2, at least 2 of which were against weaker opposition than Collins. The physical nature of clay tennis does not help her game and while she is still a world class player, her price reflects a little too much respect for history in my opinion.
Collins has been playing some of the best tennis of her career over the past few seasons and has the game to trouble the best. She is tall with easy power and more than enough variation and defensive capability to beat anyone on her day.
She has been a very profitable player to back with a 35.1% ROI over the last 12 months and a remarkable 21% ROI lifetime over 261 matches. As an underdog she’s won 6 of her last 10 for a 98% ROI and 50 of 105 lifetime for a 36.7% ROI.
On the clay she’s won 35 of her last 50 for a 26% ROI and again she is especially effective as an underdog with a 12-12 record and 33.7% ROI. Most notably she made the quarter final of the French Open last year defeating Muguruza priced +333 (4.33) enroute.
Collins looks long all things considered so I also like the money line at -131. Her run at the French in 2020 saw 4 of her 5 matches go the distance and I would expect another battle, so I’ll also take a chance on over 21 games at -112.
Tennis Pick: Collins to win at -131 (2.31) with BetOnline
*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.