No luck this time around unfortunately with both tips losing. Rogers was simply too good for Kontaveit on the day, coming back from a break down to win 6-4 6-3, while Berrettini defeated Khachanov 7-6 7-6 7-6 – a painful way to lose an over bet. That’s betting for you and I’m back to find more value for readers as we bring the first week to a close. Join me as I analyze day 8 in Melbourne and offer my best value ATS and WTA picks and predictions for Sportsbook Review!
Matteo Berrettini vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
Monday, February 15, 2021 – 04:15 AM EST at Melbourne Park
Click here for our real time tennis odds
I was surprised to see Tsitsipas at -333 (1.3) for this match but while I do think there’s value to be had on both moneylines, I most like the look of over 40 games at -118 (1.85) with BetOnline. Tsitsipas and Berrettini are both 6’ 4” with exceptional serves. They have held 88% and 91% respectively over the last year at main level. This week they’ve been particularly impressive holding 98% and 94%. Historically they have been good for overs. When Tsitsipas has been priced at -500 (1.2) to -101 (1.99) against the top 50 on hard and indoor, the over bet has lost in just 12 of 43 (28%).
Similarly, when Berrettini has been priced at betting odds of +100 (2) to +500 (6) at main level, the over bet has lost in just 13 of 42 matches (31%). Berrettini has only been priced +100 (2) to +500 (6) against top 20 opposition on hard and indoor on 9 occasions but the over has landed in 8. The H2H has seen them play 5 times, 4 of which came since 2019 and 3 were in 2020. Of those, 2 were exhibitions using a different scoring format so are less relevant, but it’s worth pointing out that both were very tight. Another was an exhibition which ended 7-6 7-6.
The final two matches were played at slams and ended 6-7 7-6 7-6 (US open qualies) and 6-7 6-4 6-3 7-6 (Australian Open 2019). Tsitsipas has held 97.4% and Berrettini 90% over those two matches and I would expect more of the same, especially in these quick conditions. All in all, I’m more than happy with over 40 games at -118 (1.85) with BetOnline as my selection for the men’s side on day 8.
Shelby Rogers vs. Ashleigh Barty
Monday, February 15, 2021 – 03:00 AM EST at Melbourne Park
Click here for our real time tennis odds
We were unfortunate that Rogers played quite so well last round, but it may well help us land a winner in this match. Barty is in great form and clearly the rightful favorite, but I don’t think the best sports books are giving Rogers enough respect especially after her performance last round.
I see value on taking the moneyline but as with the Tsitsipas match, given that we have a very strong, in-form favorite, I prefer the option of taking over 20.5 games at -120 (1.83) with Bovada in expectation of a tight match.
Barty is one of the most consistent players on tour and generally wins these kinds of matches, but she doesn’t tend to dominate opponents and instead relies on tenaciously breaking down their defences. This shows in her stats – despite winning 41 of her last 50 matches when priced at betting odds of -500 (1.2) to -101 (1.99) against top 100 opposition on indoor and outdoor hard, the over bet has lost in just 16 (32%).
Rogers is also a good candidate to make Barty work hard. Rogers is an excellent underdog, and just 18 of her last 50 matches (36%) priced between +100 (2) to +500 (6) have seen the over bet lose. Up against top 20 opposition in this price bracket the over has lost in just 2 of her last 10 matches going back to 2017.
These two played just last week with Barty winning 7-5 2-6 10-4. It was a high-quality match and Rogers was actually the better player over the first two sets to my mind, so I would expect her to at least put up a fight in this rematch.
I like both to play their part in this match and with any luck we’ll see them comfortably cover the over 20.5 games line at -120 (1.83) with Bovada.
*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.