It was one void and one loss last out as Berrettini withdrew and Rogers once again foiled our over – this time by losing 3 and 4 to Barty. She had her chances to break back in the first set but failed and Barty took hold of the match from that point in what was a very strong performance from the top seed. We’re into the second week which will hopefully bring lots of high-quality tennis and a little more fortune on the betting front. Join me as I analyze day 10 in Melbourne and offer my best value Tennis picks and predictions for Sportsbook Review!
Rafael Nadal vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
Wednesday, February 17, 2021 – 03:30 AM EST at Melbourne Park
Click here for our real time tennis odds
It’s hard to pick a highlight match with so many high-quality affairs, but this would be my pick. Nadal enjoys favoritism but not by a lot. He’ll be acutely aware that Tsitsipas is one of the young guns really pressing to take the mantle away from the big 3.
As usual, I expect we’ll see a strong performance from Rafa, and I think the moneyline betting odds are about right, but I doubt he’ll have it all his own way. Tsitsipas is a tall player with a strong serve who has made Nadal work hard for victory in their recent encounters, so in these quick conditions I like the looks of over 41 games at -112 (1.89) with Bookmaker.
Tsitsipas is the main focus for this bet as a player who tends to play long matches against high quality opposition. At 6’ 4” it is not surprising that he is somewhat serve orientated, especially against elite-level opposition. When priced up at +100 (2) to +300 (3) the over bet has lost in just 14 of his last 50 matches (28%). He has played just 10 matches against top 20 opposition priced up between +100 (2) and +200 (3) on indoor and outdoor hard and the over has landed in 7.
Rafa isn’t an obvious pick for overs, but when he has been priced at betting odds of -500 (1.2) to -101 (1.99) against top 20 opposition on hard courts the over bet has lost in just 19 of his last 50 matches going back to 2011, including just 3 of the last 10 going back to 2017. He may be dominant on clay, but on hard courts against top opposition, he often struggles to win easily.
The H2H is 7-1 to Nadal, which is part of what puts me off the moneyline on Tsitsipas, but in 5 of the last 6 matches the over has landed and 5 of their last 10 sets have been 7-5 or 7-6. It has to be noted that Rafa demolished Tsitsipas 6-2 6-4 6-0 at the Australian Open in 2019, but a whole lot has changed since then reflected by the fact that Tsitsipas is half the price.
Jessica Pegula vs. Jennifer Brady
Tuesday, February 16, 2021 – 09:00 PM EST at Melbourne Park
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It’s an all-American quarter-final and what a week it has been for Pegula, winning against Azarenka in round 1 and then Svitolina last up to make her maiden slam quarter-final. Brady, too, has been in sublime form having yet to drop a set and I expect we’ll see a high-quality match.
My first thought was (predictably) an over bet but I’m not keen on the line of 21.5 games given that Pegula is more return than serve orientated. Instead, I’m happy to take a chance on Pegula to win at +185 (2.85) with Bovada. They both have been in excellent form but I think the market is leaning too heavily towards Brady.
Brady is not someone I would want to take on based on this week’s form and she has been in great form overall over the past year or so. However, she has yet to be tested by an opponent of this quality and often flatters to deceive, especially late on in tournaments. In fact, Brady has won just 13 of her 26 matches when priced at betting odds of -200 (1.5) to -101 (1.99) in quarters, semis and finals for a -16% ROI.
Pegula is a money machine as an underdog with a 26-24 record and 40% ROI over her last 50 matches at betting odds over +100 (2). Against top 50 opposition on hard courts she has won 8 of 18 for a 46% ROI including 5 of 9 over the last 12 months for a 70% ROI. As mentioned, she defeated Azarenka and Svitolina this week priced up at +250 (3.5) and +200 (3) respectively.
The one H2H meeting came on a hard court in August 2020 with Pegula winning in straight sets priced up at +250 (3.5). They’re both playing very positive, aggressive tennis this week and I expect a tight affair with chances both ways. My price for Pegula is +125 (2.25) to +150 (2.5), so I’ll take the +185 (2.85) on offer from Bovada.
*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.