ATP 500 Acapulco Betting Analysis - Best Field Ever In Tournament History

Dominic Thiem

Joao Mourato

Tuesday, February 28, 2017 3:50 PM GMT

Join us on our ATP Abierto Mexicano Telcel tournament analysis that takes place this week in Acapulco. Find out who the main contenders are as well as the player to keep an eye on this event. 

Main Contenders

Novak Djokovic returns to action this week after a shocking defeat in the Australian Open 2nd round against Denis Istomin. This is Djokovic’s first career appearance in Acapulco with the Serbian requesting a wild card to play this event. As it usually happens, Novak is the main favorite to win the title with BetVictor offering +163 for his triumph.

Despite Djokovic’s unquestionable favoritism, the Serbian won’t have an easy task in Acapulco. Besides his difficult debut against the unpredictable Martin Klizan, Djokovic should face Juan Martin Del Potro in the 2nd round. The Argentinean featured a huge upset last year in the Olympic Tournament and is always a dangerous opponent.

Taking a look now at the following rounds, Nick Kyrgios and Dominic Thiem are the two other players that Djokovic might face in his path into the final. Although we believe in Novak’s success in Acapulco, it’s hard to find much value on his current betting odds due to his extremely tough draw. With this in mind, our suggestion is for you to place a smaller stake on Djokovic’s outright to win this event since we expect to see him reaching the final rounds despite the difficult draw.

The two-time champion – Rafael Nadal – returns to Acapulco after a three-year absence. Despite his brilliant 10 – 0 career record on this event, this is Nadal’s first appearance in Acapulco since the tournament is played on Hard Court. 

Nadal couldn’t ask for a better draw in Acapulco since he shouldn’t experience any problems on his debut against Mischa Zverev. Known for his serve & volley, Zverev’s game style is far from effective against Rafael’s outstanding defensive skills. The Spaniard won their previous encounter earlier this year in Brisbane by 6 – 1 6 – 1 and we expect another easy triumph from the former world no.1. Having said that, Nadal’s -5.0 spread at -128 at Pinnacle should be easily covered on this match.

Taking a look now at Nadal’s potential opponents in the following rounds, the Spaniard might face players like Jack Sock and Marin Cilic. Despite their undeniable quality, it’s unlikely to see any of them defeating Nadal on this high bouncing conditions in Acapulco. Therefore, taking Nadal’s betting odds to win the title at +275 at BetVictor might be a good approach for a trade before a possible final against Djokovic.

 

Defending Champion

After winning the Rio Open title, the defending champion – Dominic Thiem – is looking for another successful campaign in Acapulco. Known for his heavy topspin groundstrokes and outstanding kick serve, the high bouncing conditions in Acapulco clearly suit Thiem’s game style.

Even though many players struggle to perform at their best when playing on different surfaces in consecutive weeks, Dominic already proved more than once that he’s able to keep a high level regardless of the surface change. Last year he featured an incredible run in Stuttgart, winning his first career title on grass after reaching the French Open semifinals just a few days before on clay.

Taking a look now at Thiem’s draw on this event, the Austrian starts his campaign against Gilles Simon. These two players know each other well, with Thiem winning four of their previous six encounters – including one two weeks ago in Rotterdam. The conditions in Acapulco clearly benefit Thiem’s game style on this match-up, which makes him a great addition to your betting picks for this first round at -159 at Pinnacle.

Although Acapulco has an incredibly strong field this season with several top 10 players, Dominic is always a player to keep an eye with the Austrian currently priced at +1800 at Bet365 to win the title.