Atletico Madrid vs. FC Porto Free Champions League Picks

Nila Amerova

Monday, December 9, 2013 1:38 PM GMT

FC Porto will try to turn the odds in their favour when they take on runaway favourites Atletico Madrid on match day 6 in Champions League Betting. What are their chances? Find out as we breakdown this match and serve up soccer free picks for your consideration.

Atletico Madrid flying high

Atletico Madrid are flying high in La Liga right now, in second place but level on points with Barcelona following a 2-0 win over Elche and, in turn, a helping hand from Athletic Club, dealing Barcelona a shock upset, a 1-0 defeat at the weekend – incidentally, an outcome we successfully predicted in our match preview.

Atletico Madrid are proving preseason expectations, which held them as credible title threats, were spot on. What’s more they’re underscoring their La Liga account with an equally impressive run in Europe’s top-flight competition. In fact, Group G proved no contest for the Atletico juggernaut as they were declared group G winners ahead of match day 5, a circumstance that they took full advantage of, resting most of their starters for weekend domestic commitments and sending a second-tier side to St. Petersburg instead; though, one that still managed to take a point on the road to extend their undefeated run to 4-1-0 and 13 points.

Atletico’s current form is stellar as well. They are riding a ten-match winning streak ahead of midweek Champions League action, which includes eight wins and two draws and seven clean sheets, one of which was a 7-0 thrashing of Getafe a few weeks ago.

In spite of all these positives, sportsbooks send Atletico Madrid into match day six as the +110 favourites to win outright. That they are on the short side of even money rather than runaway favourites is rather interesting, especially when they’ll be playing to a home crowd of fans and looking to maintain their undefeated record in Europe at the expense of FC Porto. Do the odds makers have it right? Or is this just an oversight, thereby a steal soccer pick that one can’t afford to ignore.

It’s no secret that FC Porto have a mountain to climb if they hope to continue in Champions League this season. They missed a valuable opportunity on match day 5, which is threatening to become one they’ll be ruing by Wednesday night when all is said and done; that is, if the odds were any indication: The odds are stacked steep in group qualification betting with FC Porto listed at a whopping +500 at Bet365 to advance while Zenit is trading as the runaway favourites at -800. That is telling.

When they succumbed to a 1-1 draw at home to Austria Wien the cookie crumbled. They stayed in third place, a point behind Zenit after their Russian rivals drew with Atletico on the same day. Now what the Portuguese side needs is divine intervention: not only do they need to beat Atletico Madrid (no mean feat by any stretch of the imagination) but they also need Zenit to stumble against Austria Wien in the section’s other match. Understandably, the odds are stacked against FC Porto in soccer odds markets where they are at +225 to win outright. A draw, trading at +250, would not cut it.

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Soccer Betting Verdict

It all feels a bit much for FC Porto right now. Left it too late they have, it seems. Granted it’s not impossible. Anything can happen from match to match of course as matches are played on the field and not on paper. But where this matchup is concerned, it’ll really depend on Diego Simeone and the starting XI he fields. If he decides to rest his top players again, in anticipation of their domestic clash with Valencia at the weekend, FC Porto might have a slim shot at the win. If Simeone however fields a full-strength starting XI, it’s going to be hard to beat Atletico in Madrid. Either way, no matter the starting XI, Atletico at +110 soccer odds is just too good of a price to ignore and as such we’re piling on to it. As well, as an added soccer pick we’re taking Atletico to win both halves at +250 and the Over 2.5 at +100.

Soccer Free Picks: Atletico to win outright at +110; Over 2.5 at +100

Bonus Free Picks: Atletico to win both halves at +250