Atletico Madrid vs. Barcelona UCL Soccer Picks: Back Messi To Score 500th Goal

Bernardo Baltazar

Tuesday, April 12, 2016 7:44 PM GMT

Barcelona arrives to Madrid with a slight advantage on this tie but the Camp Nou match was far from easy, with Messi & Co. going through the worst phase of the season!

The first leg went according to predicted regarding our bets yet, we must admit that Torres red card early in the game was a huge help for that to happen. Until the moment where Torres was sent off, not only was Atletico in the lead but they were also the better team on the pitch.

When everything seemed solved in La Liga, Barcelona lost the last two games and is only three points ahead of Atletico. The last six rounds on Spanish league promise to be exciting, not only with Atletico very close with a three point gap but also with Real Madrid just four points behind the leader.

This is probably the worst possible time in the season for Barcelona to lose some of their magic. The last two losses in La Liga and the shaky victory on the 1st leg against Atletico showed some weaknesses on Barcelona’s team.

With Torres unable to give his contribute on this match, Simeone shouldn’t change his approach this game, where a 1-0 victory is enough to eliminate Barcelona and this is the kind of result that suits Atletico’s style.

On the other hand, Suarez is back to the team after not playing on the weekend due to suspension. Barcelona has to change their attitude and think that the last three games were nothing more than a normal physical break in which every team experiences at some stage of the season. Luis Enrique knows that one goal might be crucial for Barcelona’s aspirations therefore, Messi, Neymar and Suarez should be on the starting XI for this match.

Must Read: Predictions For Tuesday & Wednesday On Champions League

Betting Overview
The winners market is one of the most appealing for us on this match. Atletico are the underdogs on this match and after what they did in the first leg, Simeone’s team has weapons to challenge Barcelona and to take advantage of Luis Enrique’s team tough moment however, Barcelona is a very difficult team to face in a good day and they might take advantage of Atletico’s need to score at least one goal on this match.

We expect a game where Atletico will play with a high intensity and a very aggressive attitude, while Barcelona might not be as confident as they wish for this game due to the less achieved results on their last three games.

Looking now to the goals market, this is a game that we consider extremely hard to predict, in opposition to the first leg. The Under is the most likely result to happen with the Sportsbooks protecting that scenario by offering a price of -125 for that.

On secondary goal markets, the Both Teams To Score is an interesting one since 1-1 is a highly likely final result but the odd for that to happen is quite fair which doesn’t give us value to play on it.

Important also to refer that Leo Messi keeps looking for his goal number 500 and the truth is that sooner or later it will come. Messi usually shows up on the big matches and this is a great opportunity for him to score again. William Hill offers a very good price on Messi to score at any time @+130 and we think there is value on it. On Atletico’s side, with Torres away the main player on their attack will be Griezmann and Betfred has him to score @+350 soccer odds, which is an excellent value when compared to the price of bet365 @+150.

Final Analysis
We can conclude that this is probably the toughest game to analyze on this 2nd leg of the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals and even though we think that the highest value line for this match is Atletico’s double chance, we believe also that their need to score will increase their risks and if they can’t score early they might jeopardize everything. Therefore, we’ll stick to smaller stakes and bet only on the two goal scorers with our soccer picks.

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Free Soccer Picks: Messi to score at any time +130 & Griezmann to score at any time +350 
Best Line Offered: at William Hill & at Betfred respectively