Jordan’s WNBA Picks 30-32-1
Minnesota Lynx at Atlanta Dream
Tuesday, August 06, 2019 – 07:00 PM EDT
WNBA Picks: OVER 1Q & 1H, Lynx 1Q & 1H ATS
Recommended Sportsbook: BetOnline
The Lynx and Dream desperately need a win tonight. The Lynx are on a four-game losing streak heading into Tuesday night, while the Dream have dropped their last seven in a row. Losing this game might not hurt that much for Atlanta, considering how bad their season has gone to this point. For the Lynx, a loss on Tuesday would mean they are being buried into the eighth seed and could even be in danger of missing the playoffs if the Liberty can catch fire.
However, the Lynx do get a nice boost tonight, as WNBA legend Seimone Augustus is probable to make her season debut.
After undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery on May 30, the four-time WNBA champ is ready to play and it couldn’t come at a better time for the Lynx. Combine Augustus’ offensive talent with Sylvia Fowles and Odyssey Sims, and you have a hell of a problem for the Dream tonight.
Atlanta already has trouble stopping opposing teams. They are allowing nearly 100 points per 100 possessions this year, ranking ninth in the league in defensive rating. Plus, over this losing streak, the Dream have averaged just 84.8 points per 100 possessions.
Luckily, the Lynx defense hasn’t been anything to get excited about either. Over their four game losing streak, they’ve allowed 102.5 points per 100 possessions and in the first half it jumps to 104.3.
Being at home should elevate the Dream offense some and with the Lynx playing pretty poor defense early in games, I’m attacking the first quarter and half totals with over plays.
On top of that, I think the return of Augustus is being undervalued by the books here in the early afternoon odds.
We’ve seen these odds dip since they opened and while I can understand thinking that a defensive game could be on the horizon, just look at the pace of these two teams lately.
Over their last seven games, notably against mostly faster paced teams, the Dream have played at a first half pace of 99.1 and a first quarter pace of nearly 99 as well.
The Lynx on the other hand already play at the fourth-fastest first half pace in the league. Over their four game losing streak, Minnesota has allowed 104.3 points per 100 possessions in the first half and 123.5 points per 100 possessions in those four first quarters.
So, there is a little danger with taking the Lynx ATS in the first quarter and half, but I think one of those will cash along with both the over in the first quarter and first half.