Astronomical Odds Trading in Wimbledon Day 4 Betting Market: Make Profit Without Overdosing On Chalk

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, July 1, 2015 12:52 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jul. 1, 2015 12:52 PM UTC

Nadal, Federer & Murray feature on Thursday's tennis betting card as the get their 2nd round matches underway at Wimbledon. Here's our preview for their respective matches, complete with tennis picks.

Dustin Brown +650 vs. Rafael Nadal -1400
Rafael Nadal advanced into the second round behind a straight set win over Thomaz Bellucci 6-4, 6-2, 6-4. At times the Spaniard was brilliant. But there were also moments of uncertainty in his game, something that has plagued him all season long while searching for confidence and trying to reclaim his former glorious form.

On paper, Nadal has a very winnable match against Dustin Brown of Germany. Brown ranks at No. 102 in the world and boasts a 5-11 mark this season. He advances in the second round with a win over Yen-Hsun Lu in four sets.

That said, it might surprise some tennis bettors to learn that the German has the 1-0 head-to-head edge over Nadal, having beaten him in their only meeting in Halle last year – a Wimby warm-up event – 6-4, 6-1. He might fancy his chances with the confidence of that win and Nadal still looking vulnerable at times. However, this is the best-of-five scenario, where Nadal is really tough to beat, even under his present, less-than-stellar circumstances. Expecting Brown to improve to 2-0 over Nadal on such a big occasion is a tough ask.

Nadal is the justifiable fave at -1400 to win outright. And win he should. However, this could be a much tougher match than the odds makers suggest. It's possible he might lose a set to the German. Nadal to win in straight sets is trading at -200 while a 3-1 win is going for +275.

Tennis Picks: Nadal to win 3-0 or 3-1


Sam Querrey +1000 vs. Roger Federer -2000
Sam Querrey is a super talented American player, but one that perennially underachieves on the ATP Tour. He should be ranked higher than No.36 in the world. That he isn't is a consequence of his inconsistency from tournament to tournament. Therefore, it's no surprise that odds makers don't fancy his chances against Federer in their second round meeting at the All England Club.

Querrey's 14-14 on the season before Wimbledon, so just scratching the .500 mark.What's more, he trails 0-2 to Federer, which includes a 0-5 mark on sets as well. Having made no impression on Federer in previous meetings and given his modest form this season he's a long shot tennis pick best left alone. More likely than not Federer will win this match and quite handily. Tennis bettors looking to bank on Federer will find better tennis odds in prop betting markets. Federer to win in straight sets is a value  tennis pick at -225.

Tennis Picks: Federer to win 3-0 at -225 at Bet365


Robin Haase +2000 vs. Andy Murray -10000
Andy Murray, Britain's hope for a second career Wimbledon title, takes on Netherland's Robin Haase in the second round. Murray had his hands full with Mikhail Kukushkin in the first round, but he eventually got the job done in straight sets to the delight of the Centre Court crowd.

Haase moves into the second round at the expense of Alejandro Falla in four sets. Haase can be a dangerous floater, a tough opponent to get past despite the hefty +2000 price tag in match betting markets. Make no mistake, he can make life difficult for Murray, so much talent does he have. Unfortunately, Haase has had to battle with injuries over his career and he can be inconsistent as well.

Haase trails Murray 1-3 lifetime. He won their first-ever meeting in 2008 in Rotterdam 7-5, 6-3. In 2011, he really took it to Murray at the US Open R64. In fact, he went up two sets before he lost in five 7-65, 6-2, 2-6 0-6, 4-6. Since that meeting, Murray reeled off two more wins, both on the major stage (Aussie Open 2013 and US Open 2014), but neither was that easy as the tennis betting odds for this match suggest. Their last meeting was another protracted affair that went four sets 6-3, 7-66,1-6, 7-5 at the 2014 US Open R128.

Undoubtedly, Murray is the smart tennis pick  to win outright. He should accomplish the feat in three tight sets, but it's possible Haase will steal one off him. Our recommended tennis pick is Murray to win in 3-0 or 3-1, which can be backed at -500 or +350, respectively, at Bet365.

Tennis Picks: Murray to win 3-0 or 3-1

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