The American Express Betting Preview: Can Variance Upset Stacked Field?

The PGA Tour returns from a two-week stint in Hawaii to begin the West Coast swing in La Quinta, CA. We tee up 2022's first event on the mainland with our PGA Tour preview and picks for The American Express.

A field of 156 is in California this week. Hideki Matsuyama isn't among them following his comeback victory at the Sony Open in Hawaii, but Russell Henley will be in attendance as he looks to shake off the disappointment of his back-nine collapse. Si Woo Kim returns as the defending champion, but he'll need to overcome another star-laden field led by world No. 1 Jon Rahm.

Patrick Cantlay (No. 4), Scottie Scheffler (No. 14), Tony Finau (No. 17), and Abraham Ancer (No. 20) round out those in the top 20 of the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR). Many more of the biggest names in golf are competing in this week’s Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship on the DP World Tour.

Here are my outright, matchup, and prop picks for the PGA Tour's The American Express in La Quinta, CA.

The American Express Odds

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The American Express Odds Analysis

The strong field this week, coupled with the fact a lot of the top names haven’t played since the early fall, has created a considerable amount of variance near the top of the odds board. But no one stands out more near the top than Gooch. His +2000 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook imply a 4.76% chance of winning outright, while the +3600 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook represent a 2.7% win probability.

Jump on some of the high outliers as early as possible, as books are likely to correct and meet somewhere in the middle. Kim opened as high as +6600 at Barstool Sportsbook as another early week buy; he dipped to +5000 by Tuesday morning. Defending champions are routinely among the heaviest-bet golfers each week, even with a low success rate for back-to-back tournament winners.

The American Express Course Betting Profile

The American Express is split between three courses: Stadium Course, La Quinta Country Club, and Nicklaus Tournament Course. They measure 7,140, 7,060, and 7,181 yards, respectively, and each one plays to a par of 72. All three courses are composed of Bermudagrass.

The tournament is a pro-am for each of the first three days, so each golfer will play each of the three courses once Thursday through Saturday, with a 54-hole cut. Those who make the cut will then all play the Stadium Course once again on Sunday.

The three-course rotation largely eliminates any emphasis we can place on course suitability. The Stadium Course, which will decide Sunday's final round, favors long drives and strong short games.

Since 2016, when the Stadium Course and the Nicklaus Tournament Course were added to the mix, the winning scores have all been 20-under par or better, with a low of minus-26 shot twice.

The American Express Stats

Our key stats for the week will be:

Strokes gained: approachSG: off-the-teeSG: around-the-greenPar 4 efficiency: 450-500 yardsBirdies or better gained

Brendan Steele leads this field with 13 career rounds played on the Stadium Course, while Cantlay is the leader with 3.61 total strokes gained on the field per round, including his final-round 61 last year. Kim is just behind with 3.60 strokes gained per round over his seven career laps of the track.

Sixteen members of the field have at least 10 rounds played on La Quinta CC. Lucas Glover leads that group with 2.33 strokes gained per round. Finau leads all golfers in attendance with 4.24 strokes gained per round on the Nicklaus Tournament Course, but no one has more than six rounds played there.

The American Express Picks

To win: Matthew Wolff (+3300 via Barstool), Will Zalatoris (+5000 via DraftKings), Brian Harman (+9000 via DraftKings)Tournament matchup: Jon Rahm vs. Patrick Cantlay (+140 via DraftKings), Sungjae Im vs. Scottie Scheffler (-110 via BetMGM)Top-10 finish: Lucas Glover (+800 via DraftKings)Top European: Jon Rahm (+110 via BetMGM)Winner not in final group in final round: +180 via BetMGM

The American Express Outright Picks

Wolff (+3300)

Wolff will play for the first time in 2022 after finishing second, T-5, and T-11 in three events on the fall swing. He tied for 40th in this event last year ahead of a mercurial stretch that included two withdrawals, disqualification from the Masters, and a 10-week leave from competitive golf.

Through 12 measured rounds to start the 2021-22 season, he’s averaging 2.24 total strokes gained on the field per round, with 0.71 SG: around-the-green and 0.96 SG: putting. His 68.847 scoring average through 16 total rounds leads the PGA Tour. He’s also tied for ninth in birdie-or-better percentage and tied for 31st in Par 4 efficiency from our key distance on the young season.

Wolff’s a strong value among the favorites at Barstool, with BetMGM offering opening odds as low as +2500. He’s the eighth-ranked golfer in the field by the OWGR measure, but he shares just the 11th-best odds to win at Barstool.

Zalatoris (+5000)

Zalatoris will play for the first time since a T-37 finish at the DP World Tour Championship in Dubai. The reigning PGA Tour Rookie of the Year slipped to No. 37 in the OWGR with an unimpressive fall stretch, but he was as high as 27th last year. These odds are considerably worse than we’ve seen for some time from last year's Masters runner-up.

The then-24-year-old didn’t play this event last year, but he tied for seventh at the Farmers Insurance Open (next week’s event in California). He finished the 2020-21 season ranked eighth on Tour with 0.85 SG: approach per round, and he also gained strokes off the tee and with the short game. He was 18th in scoring average and T-60 in birdie-or-better percentage as a rookie on Tour.

Zalatoris is offered as low as +4000 at PointsBet and SI Sportsbook, so we’re getting a nice boost on a golfer with a top-eight finish in three of the four majors since fall 2020.

Harman (+9000)

We’re taking advantage of inflated odds for the 62nd-ranked golfer in the world after a poor second half of 2021. Harman missed three cuts and didn’t finish better than T-29 in his final nine events of the year. He returned to play in Hawaii last week and logged an adequate T-48 finish.

He now plays an event in which he tied for eighth last year. That kickstarted a stretch of golf that also included a T-3 finish at The Players Championship and a T-5 in the WGC-Match Play. 

We’re ignoring his poor fall form with the change in location and at an event with two rounds on another Pete Dye course. He's averaged 1.63 strokes gained per round over 12 rounds on the Stadium Course. His eight rounds and 0.47 strokes gained per round on La Quinta CC are more than those by tournament favorites Im, Finau, Ancer, and Conners.

The American Express Matchup Picks

Rahm vs. Cantlay (+140)

This should be much closer to a coin flip between the No. 1 player in the OWGR and the reigning FedEx Cup champion.

Cantlay finished the 2020-21 season at No. 4 in the OWGR, and he began his 2022 campaign with a fourth-place finish at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. The two-time winner last calendar year finished second in this event with a record-breaking final round of 61 on the Stadium Course.

Cantlay finished second on Tour behind Rahm in total strokes gained per round last season, but he did better on and around the greens. He also finished last season third on Tour in Par 4 efficiency: 450-500 yards.

Im vs. Scheffler (-110)

Im comes off a disappointing missed cut last week as one of the pre-tournament favorites following a T-8 finish at the Tournament of Champions. Scheffler will make his 2022 debut after recording three top-five finishes - including two runner-ups - in six events on the fall swing.

Scheffler's better off the tee and from tee to green. Im tied for 12th in this event last year, but that was on the back of 2.40 SG: putting per round to rank second in the field. He lost strokes around the greens and off the tee on the Stadium Course.

The American Express Top Prop Picks

Top 10: Glover (+800)

Glover was last week's field leader with 2.39 SG: approach and 2.36 SG: tee-to-green per round. He missed last year's cut in La Quinta, but he's among the field leaders in rounds played and strokes gained per round on La Quinta CC, a course that was dropped from last year's tournament rotation.

He's averaging 0.58 SG: approach and 0.52 SG: off-the-tee per round through 21 measured rounds on the 2021-22 season.

Top European: Rahm (+110)

This week's European contingent is particularly weak, with top players Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Shane Lowry, Tyrrell Hatton, and more competing in Abu Dhabi.

Rahm won here in 2018 and has since risen to No. 1 in the world. Seamus Power is his closest competition in this pool at +550 via BetMGM.

Winner not in final group in final round: +180

This final plus-money prop targets the strong field and the low scores that can be fired on the Stadium Course on Sunday. Cantlay started six groups behind Kim last year while going 11-under par.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Picks made on 1/18/2022 at 8:20 a.m. ET.