Alcaraz vs. Djokovic Predictions & Odds for 2023 Men's Wimbledon Final
It's the Wimbledon final many hoped for when Novak Djokovic meets Carlos Alcaraz at Center Court. Read on to find out our take on the 2023 Men's Wimbledon Final.
Carlos Alcaraz's straight-set semifinal win over Daniil Medvedev was his 46th victory of the season, tying him with Medvedev for most on the tour. Alcaraz is now the third Spanish man to reach the Wimbledon Final, joining Rafael Nadal (five times) and Manuel Santana (1966). This is Alcaraz's second Final in his last three Major appearances, and he hopes for a Wimbledon title to go with his 2022 US Open championship.
Novak Djokovic has made the Final in half of his Wimbledon appearances (nine of 18), and his 35 Major Final appearances overall are the most of all-time. He has won 45 consecutive matches on Centre Court (3,659 days since his last loss to Andy Murray in the 2013 Final). A 46th straight victory would give him a record-tying 24th Major title.
Here are our best Alcaraz vs. Djokovic predictions for the 2023 Wimbledon final (odds via Caesars; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Alcaraz vs. Djokovic odds
(odds via DraftKings)
| Carlos Alcaraz | Novak Djokovic | |
| Moneyline | +150 | -180 |
| Spread | +3.5 (-120) | -3.5 (+100) |
| Over/Under | Over 40.5 (-115) | Under 40.5 (-105) |
Alcaraz vs. Djokovic prediction
Over 39.5 games (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Alcaraz and Djokovic played two highly-entertaining sets in their French Open matchup, and Alcaraz seemed to have all the momentum after a second-set victory. However, he then suffered from cramps and won just two games for the rest of the match, about which Alcaraz said, "[It] has been really tough for me today. I never felt something like I did today. I have never felt that tension that I did in that match."
While nerves will always be a factor with a young player (Alcaraz became the youngest World No. 1 after winning the 2022 US Open), one has to believe he will learn from the French Open experience and take better care of his body entering this match.
The most impressive part of Alcaraz's run to the final has been his return of serve, as he has broken his opponents' serve a combined 26 times through six matches and created at least 14 break-point opportunities in five of those (two came in his last three matches). Alcaraz was 4-of-16 on break-point chances in the Round of 16 against Matteo Berrettini after Berrettini entered not having been broken at Wimbledon.
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With the forecast looking good for Sunday, there is a great chance the roof at Centre Court will be open, and that favors Alcaraz, as Djokovic would benefit from faster conditions. It is a small-sample size, but Alcaraz has proven he can beat Djokovic, winning 6-7, 7-5, 7-6 in the 2022 Madrid semifinals.
Djokovic saved 77% of breakpoints in his first five matches (and all six against Jannik Sinner), and the fact that he has won 15 consecutive Major tiebreaks makes it difficult to back Alcaraz outright. But he can certainly push him, and in the five sets he was healthy against Djokovic, only one went less than 12 games.
Thus, the Over of projected games is our most confident four-star play, as anything less than a straight-set victory should cash it.
Enter SBR's Wimbledon Men's Final Challenge and make your picks for a shot at the $100 guaranteed prize pool.
Check out our Wimbledon odds, US Open odds, and 2024 Australian Open odds.
Wimbledon final best odds
Caesars (-115)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40.5 | 40.5 | 40.5 | 39.5 | 40.5 |
| -115 | -110 | -135 | -115 | -115 |
Caesars is our go-to shop as Over backers, as it charges similar -115 juice to other best sportsbooks, but at a total one game fewer than the others. Caesars does not offer alternate game totals as of this writing, but since we would be comfortable to back the Over up to 40.5 games, it would be worth checking back to see if they would offer that line at plus-money odds.
For an interesting live-bet tidbit, Djokovic has won 105 straight Major matches after winning the first set. At DraftKings, one can back Djokovic to win the first set and the entire match as part of a two-leg parlay for -125 odds.
Wimbledon final match info
- When: Sunday, July 16, 9 a.m. ET
- Where: All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club, London, Great Britain
- How to watch: ESPN
Alcaraz-Djokovic pick made 7/14/2023 at 3:31 p.m. ET
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