This week, the top class Edmonton Eskimos take on the reeling Winnipeg Bluebombers who are now without their starting QB Matt Nichols for at least 6 weeks. That game kicks off on Friday night at 9pm EST.
We got the Roughriders treading water against the floundering Ottawa RedBlacks in the first of the doubleheader on Saturday. Hamilton goes to BC to take on the desperate BC Lions as the second half of the Saturday doubleheader.
Then to finish off the week, the less than desirable Toronto Argonauts take on the enigma that is the Montreal Alouettes.
Trends worth Tracking
The most profitable trend to back in 2019 so far for CFL has been the HOME side on the ML.
So far in 2019, backing the home side, bettors have gone 24-14, +7.22u, an ROI of +0.48% and $100 bettors have profited +$19 per bet win or lose. The same could be said about the Home side ML in 2018. Last year, bettors backing the home side ML went 53-33, +2.79u Keep in mind, a big part of that unit count on the home side this year is large in part due to the Toronto Argonauts’ 28-27 win over Winnipeg as a +638 underdog at home earlier this season. Speaking of underdogs, the Underdog ML side has also been a profitable side to back. Bettors blindly backing the dog in the CFL this year have gone 14-24, +5.56u, an ROI of +0.36% per wager and $100 bettors netted +$15 per bet win or lose. Flashing back to last year, the same thing can also be said. The underdogs in 2018, 28-53, +4.49u. The underdog ATS has also been a marginally profitable side to back so far in 2019. Backers of the DOG on the spread have gone 20-17, +1.2u so far this season. As far as totals go, the ‘classic CFL game’ seems to be a rising occurrence in this league. We are seeing lower scoring, closer games and odd winning margins in these first 10 weeks of the season. So far in 2019. The under is 21-18, +1.11u, I expect some positive regression on this number as last year the under finished 88-78-1, +2.08u’s making the Under more or less a play or pass for me this season. For me personally, it will take a lot to back an over in the CFL in any type of meaningful game.
But as we come to learn year after year, some of these games aren’t as meaningful to the teams as we think they are.
Week 11 Updated Power Ratings.
Edmonton stays at the top of my power ratings with a +5.25, despite me downgrading them -1.25 pts from Week 10.
Their 41-26 win over Toronto came with them allowing +0.38 more yards per play than their average, lowering their NET YPP -0.25. Regardless I still have Edmonton atop the CFL as a +5.25pts better than the average CFL team.
Calgary gets a downgrade of -0.25 this week, their 40-34 overtime loss to the Alouettes comes with the Stamps allowing 0.25 more yards per play than their average. I downgrade Calgary slightly off that loss. I make Calgary +4pts better than the average CFL team.
Saskatchewan has an upgrade of +0.25 this week for me, the Riders were on a bye week last week are coming off a 17-10 win over the Alouettes in Week 9. In that game, the Riders improved slightly on defense allowing 0.125 yards per play LESS than their average, with that – even though their net rating only increases by that +0.125. I still have to upgrade them a qtr of a point simply because of the lack of improvement from the rest of the field here. I make Saskatchewan +3.5pts better than the average CFL team.
Winnipeg is downgraded -0.75pts this week in my numbers. The Bombers are going to be without Matt Nichols who suffered a throwing arm injury in their 32-16 win over the Lions in Week 10. In that game, the Bombers offense regressed slightly and gained 0.125 yards per play LESS than their average and allowed their average in yards allowed per play to stay the same.
With the downgrade from Nichols to Chris Strevler, and with the defense giving no signs of improvement.
I downgrade Winnipeg -0.75pts and make them +3.5pts better than the average CFL team.
Hamilton’s 21-7 win over the Ottawa Redblacks was possibly one of the most underwhelming performances by a team this year. With the lackluster performance by Dane Evans who was ‘just okay’ and the overall lack of creativity from the TiCats in that game. I see them simply staying the course and coasting along while a few other teams in the league are making moves towards improvement. The TiCats gained their average yards on offense and allowed their average yards on defense last week. Again, with the improvement around the league of teams like the Riders. I have to downgrade the TiCats -0.5pts and make them +1.5pts better than an average team.
As for the four bottom of the barrel teams. The Lions, even though they have had a very dissapointing season – they improved offensively in their last game vs the TiCats, gaining +0.25 more yards per play than their average.
They also allowed just slightly less than their average on defense, net/net we have some slight improvement from the Lios, but overall I still have no hope for this team’s ability to turn things around. I upgrade the Lions +1.25pts, however that doesn’t help them much on my power ratings. I make the Lions -3.5pts worse than the average CFL team.
A small downgrade for the Alouettes for me. Although they snuck out the win vs Calgary, Montreal still had no improvement on their offense or defense. For those reasons, along with the improvement from teams like Saskatchewan and with the fact that this win over Calgary may have been more of a indictment on the Stampeders rather than an improvement from the Al’s. I downgrade the Al’s by -0.5pt, and I make Montreal -3.5pts worse than an average CFL team.
Toronto is in the same boat as Montreal. No real progress from their offense of defense. In their past two games they have stayed true to their average on offense and defense. I have no upgrade for the Argos, I keep them as -5pts worse than the average CFL team.
As for Ottawa, their lackluster performance against the TiCats in week 10 made for some interesting anaylsis when making my upgrades. The RedBlacks, who overall have been atrocious this season – are still slightly improving game after game on offense and I think that has to do with the slight regression from kicker Lewis Ward. Lewis Ward missed a kick in Week 10, ending the 69 straight streak which was a record in professional football. Because of this, Ottawa tried to take the pressure off Ward and attempted to make their points in the end zone rather than the goal posts. With that Ottawa was able to gain +0.18 more yards per play than their average, and allowed just less than their average yards per play on defense. All that in mind I upgrade the RedBlacks +1.25pts, however they are still the bottom of the barrel for me. I make Ottawa -5.75pts worse than an average CFL team.
Week 11 Games by Power Ratings.
I have Edmonton about 1.75pts better than Winnipeg.
With the home field advantage my line is at -4.75.
The consensus line is -5.5.
This game is a pass for me on the spread. I would take a look at the Eskimos in a parlay.
I have the Riders about 9.25pts better than Ottawa on a neutral field.
Throw in the home field advantage and my line is at about -12.25
You are getting -9.5, I see about 2.75 pts of value in this one.
Saskatchewan -9.5 is a solid play in my books.
I have the TiCats as 5pts better than BC on a neautral field.
Add in the home field advantage and this line sits at around Hamilton -2 in my spreadsheet.
With a market consensus of BC +3.5, you are getting +1.5pts of value based on my numbers.
BC +3.5 is a good look and worth betting here.
Montreal is only about +1.25pts better than Toronto on a neautral field.
Throw in the home field advantage and my numbers have this game as Toronto -1.5
With the +6.5 on the board for the Al’s, in my opinion you are getting a solid +7.5pts of value when betting the Argos.
Give me Toronto +6.5 here.
AlMac’s Best Bets
2u – Edmonton, Saskatchewan (Parlay) -133
1u – Saskatchewan -9.5 (-105),
1u – BC Lions +3.5 (-110),
1u – Lions +165,
1u – Argonauts +6.5 (-115),
1u – Argonauts +210