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AdventHealth 400 Prop Picks: Top 10s and Matchups

AdventHealth 400 Prop Picks: Top 10s and Matchups
Aric Almirola has recorded four top-10 finishes in 2022. Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images/AFP.

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Kansas Speedway for the AdventHealth 400 on Sunday afternoon. Let’s dive in with our AdventHealth 400 Prop Picks.

After a thrilling, wreck-filled race at Darlington Speedway that a third of the field failed to finish, the proceedings should calm down once the NASCAR Cup Series gets to Kansas. But while this track isn’t known for nail-biting finishes or lots of crashes, the racing we saw at Las Vegas Motor Speedway earlier this season suggests we’re in for a great show.

Both Las Vegas and Kansas are smooth, 1.5-mile tracks. That means minimal tire wear, which wasn’t the case at Darlington, or Dover the week before. Expect higher speeds as a result. Similar conditions led to 23 lead changes and 15 different leaders in Las Vegas.

Here are my top prop picks for NASCAR’s AdventHealth 400 at Kansas Speedway in Kansas City, Kansas (odds via BetMGM and DraftKings Sportsbook).

AdventHealth 400 Prop Picks

  • Aric Almirola (-105 via DraftKings) vs. Erik Jones
  • Top 10: Aric Almirola (+160 via BetMGM)
  • Top 10: Austin Dillon (+200 via DraftKings)

SEE ALSO: AdventHealth 400 Picks and Preview

AdventHealth 400 Prop Predictions

Almirola (-105) vs. Jones

Fade Erik Jones in his matchups. He’s a very talented driver, but Jones is up against others who benefit from better equipment. Backing either Aric Almirola or Chase Briscoe from Stewart-Haas Racing to top Jones just makes financial sense.

Although Jones has occasionally looked fast in his Petty GMS Chevrolet, his best showings have come at tracks that reward different skill sets, including tire management, dirt racing, or superspeedway drafting. None of those factors are really in play at Kansas Speedway. That’s especially true for tire wear, as Kansas has remained a relatively smooth track since its last repave in 2012.

Jones looked great in Kansas with Joe Gibbs Racing, but he immediately struggled after joining Richard Petty Motorsports in 2021. He went from posting top 10s consistently to competing for top 20s.

In contrast, Almirola owns a 16th-place average finish in Kansas since joining Stewart-Haas Racing. He finished sixth in Las Vegas earlier in 2022, a race that Jones crashed out of and didn’t complete. Ty Dillon, Jones’ lone teammate, finished 20th.

Jones shouldn’t be favored over either Almirola or Briscoe, and fading him on both markets is a smart ploy to build your bankroll.

Top 10: Aric Almirola (+160)

Almirola should also be a top-10 threat. He arguably should’ve recorded a top 10 in both of his last two races, instead finishing 11th at Darlington, and a poorly timed pit stop at Dover trapped his fast No. 10 Ford one lap down.

Almirola has produced four top 10s in 2021, which ranks tied for 13th alongside six other drivers. Yet BetMGM has given him the 18th-longest odds to record another. You’ll even find him with slightly shorter odds through DraftKings (+150).

Further, Almirola has been good at Kansas Speedway historically. His seven top 10s there rank ninth among all drivers entered in Sunday’s event. Even more impressively, he piloted the mediocre No. 43 Ford to a top-10 result four times. Almirola also led 69 laps in Kansas before crashing back in 2012, too.

Don’t expect Almirola to compete for the win in Kansas, but he’ll hang around the back of the top 10. That’s what he’s done most of this season while producing an average finish of 13.8.

Almirola’s odds of securing his fifth top 10 of the campaign at the AdventHealth 400 are better than the 38.5% chance that DraftKings is giving him.

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Top 10: Austin Dillon (+200)

There’s a surprising amount of value in the top-10 markets for this race. We’ll target another with Austin Dillon, who owns six top 10s in 2022. That ranks him tied for fifth with Kevin Harvick, Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, and Ryan Blaney. Yet DraftKings is giving him the 19th-longest odds for another such result on Sunday.

Dillon can’t match the race-winning reputation that several of his peers have earned, but he’s been outperforming his equipment while taking a relatively conservative approach. When a third of the field crashed out at Darlington, Dillon kept his No. 3 Chevrolet clean before finishing ninth. He used the same strategy to finish second at Talladega.

Kansas Speedway has been a good track for Dillon. He finished 10th in both races there during the 2021 season, and 11th in the fall event in 2020. Dillon owns five top 10s in Kansas, and he’s narrowly missed with two 11th-place results. The veteran finished 11th at the similar Las Vegas Motor Speedway earlier in 2022 as well.

With Dillon stringing together back-to-back top 10s at Kansas, the books are being disrespectful while giving him only a 33.3% chance of recording another Sunday. He’s not a contender to win, but his conservative mindset will ensure Dillan can be around to compete for a top 10.

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AdventHealth 400 picks made on 5/13/2022 at 11:14 a.m. ET.