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AdventHealth 400 Picks and NASCAR Preview: Favorites and Values

AdventHealth 400 Picks and NASCAR Preview: Favorites and Values
Kyle Larson, driver of the #5 Chevrolet, Martin Truex Jr., driver of the #19 Bass Pro Shops Toyota, and Ross Chastain, driver of the #1 Pitbull Tour 2022 Chevrolet, race during the NASCAR Cup Series DuraMAX Drydene 400. Photo by Tim Nwachukwu / Getty Images via AFP

A cookie-cutter track may give drivers a chance to catch their breath from a torrid start to the 2022 NASCAR season. Here are our picks to win the AdventHealth 400 this week in Kansas.

This season has been one of many firsts. We had our first look at the Next Gen cars, our first look at the new Atlanta configuration, even first-time winners. After all of the chaos of the first 12 races, drivers will take to the Kansas Speedway, a more familiar 1.5-mile track.

Denny Hamlin has won two of the last five races at Kansas Speedway. Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, and Brad Keselowski represent the other three. Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. also have multiple wins at this track dating back to the 2016 season.

Here are my outright picks for NASCAR’s AdventHealth 400 at the Kansas Speedway in Kansas City (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, WynnBET, Caesars).

AdventHealth 400 Odds

AdventHealth 400 Odds Analysis

Despite his lack of consistency, Kyle Larson is a favorite to win this race. Most books are offering him anywhere between +600 and +700. The major outlier here is Caesars who have him listed at +450 to win.

DraftKings has Larson lumped together at the top of the chart with Busch, Hamlin, and Chase Elliott at +700. You can find a little more value on Elliott and Busch on BetMGM where they are at +800 and even better odds on Hamlin at +900.

Past winners including Harvick are coming in around the +1800 range and Truex Jr. falls at +1000 across the board.

AdventHealth 400 Picks

  • Kyle Larson (+700 via DraftKings)
  • Kyle Busch (+800 via BetMGM)
  • Chase Elliott (+800 via BetMGM)

Who Will Win the AdventHealth 400?

Larson (+700)

We haven't seen the outright dominance from Larson we saw last season. In fact, through the first 12 races of the season, he has failed to finish four of them. That is twice as many as he had last year. His average finish so far is just under 17th place with only six top-10 finishes to his credit.

Oddsmakers continue to bank on a spark from the No. 5 team which will lead to his second win of the season. Kansas may provide that spark given Larson's recent success here. Last season he claimed the pole and led 130 of the 267 laps of the race. He won, crossing the finish line almost four seconds ahead of teammate Elliott.

Larson has led a total of 322 laps over the last three races here. What's more, he has banked three top-five finishes in his last six races at Kansas.

Busch (+800)

Last week, Busch was wrecked out at Darlington in what was one of the better cars on the track that day. The No. 18 Toyota led 19 laps, clocking 15 of the fastest circuits while he was in the race. His DNF snapped a five-race streak of top 10 finishes.

He’ll look to build back his momentum at a race he won last season. Busch won the "Buschy McBusch Race" last spring at Kansas in a close finish with Harvick. It was his second career win in Kansas. All told, Busch has made 28 Cup starts here. He has 13 top-10 finishes with 9 top-fives. Each of those top-five outings have come within his last 14 races.

Also worth noting, Busch and his wife just welcomed his newest daughter to their family. As he is an emotional driver, expect him to dig a little deeper this week riding the high of his new addition.

Elliott (+800)

The No. 9 team sits as the points leader heading in Kansas. Elliott has been consistent to start his 2022 campaign notching nine top-10 finishes in 12 races. He took home his first checkered flag two weeks ago in Dover marking his third top-five on the season. He finished in fifth place last week at Darlington, giving him his fifth consecutive top-10 finish.

His 12 career Cup starts at Kansas reflects much of the same. His average finish at the track is just below 10th place. This includes his only win in the 2018 fall race. Five of his last seven outings at Kansas Speedway have produced a top-five finish.

Last fall, his NAPA Chevrolet led the second-most laps of the race, ultimately finishing second to teammate Larson.

Where to Bet on the AdventHealth 400

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

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AdventHealth 400 picks made 5/11/2022 at 1:26 p.m. ET.