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AdventHealth 400 Expert Picks and NASCAR Bet Slips: Larson Favored in Kansas

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AdventHealth 400 Expert Picks and NASCAR Bet Slips: Larson Favored in Kansas
Kyle Larson, driver of the #5 Chevrolet, walks the grid during qualifying for the NASCAR Cup Series Goodyear 400 at Darlington Raceway on May 7. Photo by James Gilbert / Getty Images via AFP

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to the Kansas Speedway for the AdventHealth 400. Read on for our AdventHealth 400 expert picks and bet slips.

Our NASCAR experts make their picks for the 2022 AdventHealth 400, including outrights, longshots, matchups, and props (odds via DraftKings SportsbookBetMGMCaesars SportsbookFanDuel Sportsbook, and WynnBet).

AdventHealth 400 Picks

AdventHealth 400 Winner

Kyle Larson (+700 via DraftKings)

If there was ever a time to buy low on defending NASCAR Cup Series Champion Kyle Larson, that time is now. Engine failure at Darlington last weekend forced the No. 5 car, that was arguably the best on the track, to retire early. Instances in which one could bet on Larson to win a race at 7-1 odds over the past year have been rare, to say the least. That is exactly the opportunity bettors have in front of them this week.

Larson won the fall playoff race at Kansas Speedway last year. That victory is part of an 11.8 average finish in his last eight starts at the Midwestern track. That average really should look a whole lot better if not for NASCAR's caution flag conundrum in the spring race at Kansas last year. Larson was on his way to a dominant victory only to get bumped on the ensuing restart.

With Atlanta becoming a pseudo superspeedway, this week's AdventHealth 400 is really only the second true 1.5-mile oval that NASCAR has run this season. Hendrick Motorsports dominated on the intermediate ovals last year. That dominance appeared to continue at Las Vegas earlier this spring when HMS had the winning car and three of the top-5 finishers. - John

Larson (+700)

I've backed the favorite the last few weeks, and it hasn’t gone according to plan. Last week at Darlington, Larson blew an engine. The week before at Dover, he spun early in the race but still rallied to a sixth-place finish. But the great thing about NASCAR betting is that the outright odds are long enough to warrant sticking with the same guy. We'd be well in the black if he can get over his streak of bad luck this weekend.

Larson is rightfully favored this weekend at Kansas. The reigning champion won the fall race from the pole after leading 130 laps. He could've won the spring race, too. He led for 132 laps but only finished 19th after crashing from second place with two laps to go. Most importantly, Larson looked great at the only other race at a traditional 1.5-mile track earlier this season: Las Vegas. He led 27 laps on his way to a second-place result behind teammate Alex Bowman. - Sirois

Kyle Busch (+800 via DraftKings)

Last spring, Kyle Busch took the checkered flag in the spring race. His No. 18 Toyota spent a total of 20 laps in the lead, including the last 11 for the win. He rolled off from the ninth position that day and fell no lower than 14th place at any point. What's more, he turned 22 of the fastest laps that day.

Busch has made 28 career Cup Series starts at Kansas. He has 13 top-10 finishes in those, including nine top 10s and two checkered flags.

His Camry has been in the mix in every race through the first 12 of the season. Overall, he has finished inside the top 10 eight times with three top-5 outings. He also has a win which he earned on the dirt at Bristol. - Villagomez

SEE ALSO: AdventHealth 400 Picks and Odds

AdventHealth 400 Longshot Picks

Kurt Busch (+4000 via DraftKings)

It took one crash to take out both of the 23XI Racing cars last weekend at Darlington. The resulting DNFs were hardly indicative of how well both Kurt Busch and Bubba Wallace were running prior to the incident.

Although it has been a rough last few weeks for the elder Busch brother, Kansas is a track where Kurt has run well in the past. He finished fourth as recently as last fall and owns a 12.9 average finish over his last 10 starts. Six of those starts saw Busch finish inside the top 10 and three were top-5 showings.

Over the past few weeks, the Toyota camp as a whole has been getting stronger. This manufacturer trend combined with Busch's strong history at Kansas is enough to make him worth a look as a 40-1 AdventHealth 400 longshot. - John

Busch (+4000)

Busch has a knack for finding victory lane every season. The wily veteran has won at least once in his last eight seasons, and the only years he failed to win after his rookie campaign were the two he spent with backmarker teams in 2012 and 2013. Busch's lone win in 2021 came at Atlanta Motor Speedway, another 1.5-mile track. His win in 2020 came at Las Vegas, and his win in 2019 came at Kentucky, both of which compare favorably to Kansas Speedway.

Busch ran well at Las Vegas this year. He finished 13th but led four laps in the process. Busch and 23XI Racing have run into a ton of unfortunate problems this season, but they've looked very good when they can stay out of other drivers' messes. As a result, I think there's enough value in backing the elder Busch brother at +4000. You’ll find him at +3300 at BetMGM, so we're getting a decent bit of value by playing this number at FanDuel and DraftKings. - Sirois

Brad Keselowski (+6600 via BetMGM)

As a new car owner, Keselowski is off to a slow start. Due to a heavy penalty for modifying the wrong parts of his car, he finds himself 31st in points. To make matters worse, his average finishing position is just under 19th place this season. He also has only one top-10 finish all year.

A win would make up for all of that though, which is something Keselowski has done on this track. He took home the checkered flag from the 2019 spring race here in the No. 2 car. It was his second victory here and his first since 2011.

Four of his last five races in Kansas have produced a top-5 finish. He's started from inside the top five in six of his last eight races, including a pole in this race last season, a race in which he finished in third place. - Villagomez

AdventHealth 400 Matchup Picks

Aric Almirola (+115 via BetMGM) vs. Erik Jones

It's admittedly a bit difficult to understand the lopsided pricing for this driver head-to-head. Aric Almirola and Erik Jones have had very similar seasons thus far. Although Jones has been finishing better recently, the results are hardly enough to justify him being a -150 favorite this weekend. Furthermore, this same head-to-head has Jones only a -125 favorite to -105 for Almirola at DraftKings.

Both Almirola and Jones have recorded a single top-5 result and four total top 10s. One of Almirola’s top-10 showings actually came at Las Vegas earlier in the season. He just missed on adding a fifth such result last week, coming home 11th at Darlington.

Of the two, Jones does own a better average finish (15.7) than Almirola (17.8) in the last 10 NASCAR Cup Series races at Kansas. However, keep in mind that most of Jones' strong showings came while driving for a powerhouse team in Joe Gibbs Racing. - John

Chase Briscoe (-105 via DraftKings) vs. Erik Jones

This one comes down to equipment. Although Jones has outperformed his relatively underwhelming No. 43 Chevrolet a few times this year, Kansas is not the track to expect a similar outcome. The smooth, cookie-cutter oval rewards better equipment more than some of Jones' better tracks, like Darlington, because of less tire wear.

Both Chase Briscoe and Jones own an average finish of 17.7. However, there's a meaningful asterisk here: Briscoe's early-race DNFs at Talladega and Las Vegas artificially deflate his numbers. Without those two races, Briscoe would have an average finish of 14th. Additionally, the two of Briscoe's Stewart-Haas Racing teammates who finished this year's race at Las Vegas did so in the top 12. Jones also crashed out at Vegas, and his lone Petty GMS Motorsports teammate finished 20th. Briscoe should be even with Jones or favored over him, so let's take the value at DraftKings. - Sirois

Joey Logano (-110 via DraftKings) vs. Ryan Blaney

When it comes to average finishing position in Kansas, these two drivers are all but identical. Joey Logano holds a slight advantage at 17.1 to Ryan Blaney's 17.3 average. That said, Logano has been to victory lane here three times while Blaney has never been. One of those wins came as recently as the fall of 2020.

In six of his last eight races here, Blaney has finished in 20th place or worse. In that span, he has a pair of 37th-place finishes and a 32nd to go along with them. Meanwhile, Logano has four top-10 finishes in that time frame. In all but one of those races, the No. 22 car finished in front of the No. 12 car. - Villagomez

AdventHealth 400 Top-Five Picks

William Byron (+125 via DraftKings)

After he was on the wrong end of a dramatic finish to last week's race at Darlington, William Byron will be seeking redemption in the AdventHealth 400. In eight previous Cup Series starts at Kansas, Byron has an average finish of 16.1. That average hardly does his recent stats at the track justice.

Dating back to the fall race in 2019, Byron has found himself among the top-10 finishers in every NASCAR Cup Series event held at Kansas, a span of five races. Few other drivers can claim that kind of consistency. Byron has one previous top-5 and was also sixth at this track last fall.

Once again, the strength of Hendrick Motorsports on the intermediate 1.5-mile ovals is worth noting. Byron has two wins and four top-5 finishes already this year. One of those came at Las Vegas. The No. 24 has been one of the fastest cars on track more often than not this season. A +125 price is too rich to pass up. - John

Ross Chastain (+125 via DraftKings)

Ross Chastain looked poised for another top 5 last weekend at Darlington Raceway, but he lost control of his speedy No. 1 Chevrolet late in the race. Despite the DNF, Chastain still leads the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series in total top 5s with seven. That leads Kyle Larson by two.

We'll stick to our guns and keep targeting Chastain for as long as the books post him at plus money. He finished third at Las Vegas earlier this season, and that track compares well to Kansas Speedway. Furthermore, Chastain won here in the Camping World Truck Series for Niece Motorsports in 2019. He has often outperformed mediocre equipment at this track, but he no longer has to do that at TrackHouse Racing. Look for Chastain to compete for another win on Sunday. - Sirois

Kevin Harvick (+225 via DraftKings)

Quite simply, Kevin Harvick runs well on this track. Each of his last four races here have ended with his No. 4 car in fourth place or better. Going back even farther, he has had a top-5 finish in 11 of his last 17 outings in Kansas. He has three wins in that span as well.

It’s taken Harvick some time to get up to speed this season. That said, he has been improving his finishing position each of the last three weeks. Last Sunday, he grabbed his second top-5 finish of the season with a fourth at Darlington. - Villagomez

SEE ALSO: AdventHealth 400 Prop Picks

AdventHealth 400 Prop Picks

Top 10 finish: Christopher Bell (+130 via FanDuel)

Good luck figuring out the NASCAR betting market pricing on Christopher Bell to finish top 10 this week. At BetMGM, one would have to lay -225 on the No. 20 car to place top 10. At DraftKings, the same prop is -125. Then, there’s FanDuel, where plus-money odds help make this one of the best AdventHealth 400 picks on the board.

Bell has quietly been one of the most consistent drivers in recent weeks. Dating back to COTA, he has finished top 10 in five of seven races. This includes each of the last two weeks. Bell came in fourth at Dover and followed it up with a sixth-place showing at Darlington.

Momentum is huge in NASCAR, like pretty much any other sport. Bell certainly comes rolling into Kansas with plenty of it, as does Toyota as a whole after a slow start to the season. Bell also has two previous top-10 finishes in just four career Cup Series starts at Kansas and an Xfinity Series win there back in 2017. - John

Top 10: Michael McDowell (+1000 via BetMGM)

This line is disrespectful. Sure, it’s unlikely that a Front Row Motorsports driver will steal a top 10 at Kansas Speedway - the team has none here in its past 58 attempts. But they've started to get close, as Michael McDowell has piloted his No. 34 Ford to 16th-, 13th-, 19th-, and 16th-place results in his last four Kansas races. The added parity from the NextGen car only makes a strong showing from McDowell likelier.

McDowell has four top 10s this season, three of which came in the last four races. He nabbed top 10s at Bristol, Talladega, and even Darlington. While McDowell will likely need some help from accidents to get another top 10 this weekend, it's more than worth a risk at odds this long. For some perspective, DraftKings has this line at +400, and FanDuel has it at +410. We're getting more than twice that from our friends at BetMGM. - Sirois

Top 5: Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson (+650 via BetMGM)

We are starting to see a surge in the Hendricks cars. All four drivers are in the top 10 in points. Chase Elliott sits at the top of the list. They combine for five wins and 15 top-5 finishes this season. Larson has five of them, while Elliott has three.

Last season, these two drivers finished as the top two cars in the fall race here. Elliott alone has six top-5 outings in his 12 career Cup starts at Kansas. Larson has four total top 5s in his 14 starts including his dominating win last fall. On top of it all, in his last three races, Larson has led 322 laps.

This season in Las Vegas, a comparable 1.5-mile track, three Hendrick drivers finished inside the top 5. All four were inside the top 10. - Villagomez

Where to Bet on the Goodyear 400

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